NATIONAL - SEVERE WEATHER RISKS - NEXT FEW DAYS.

Wild weather continues to be a threat in multiple states over the course of the next week, but lets take a look at the next 4 days as we track two troughs through from west to east, lifting all that rich moisture about.


The instability is expected to remain high for much of this week but lets look at the next 4 days.


The CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) remains elevated for much of the nation as we go through the coming week however. The values are sufficient for severe thunderstorm development.

Precipitable Water Values remain incredibly high throughout the period, especially through the NT through northern SA, NSW and into QLD with the risk of severe weather very high, related to flash flood risks.

FORECAST

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Saturday

A new trough emerges out of WA today and moves into SA today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along that boundary, some of those could be severe west of Ceduna tonight. The storms then jump most of Ag SA overnight and may redevelop over the region tomorrow. But the main focus of severe weather is expected through VIC and NSW and northern SA back into the NT with the high moisture content near the trough being lifted into heavy thunderstorms leading to flash flooding. Damaging winds are also possible. Low risk of flash flooding with thunderstorms ahead of the trough in soupy air over pockets of the Great Dividing Range in NSW and about the Carnarvon Range in QLD.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Sunday

Thunderstorms are likely to contract into NSW and QLD during Sunday with severe thunderstorms likely extending along the trough from the ACT through Central NSW into southwest QLD. Severe Thunderstorms also likely in scattered pockets over the NT and about the Top End. Showers and storms may redevelop over the eastern interior of WA with heavy rainfall and damaging winds near a new trough.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Monday

Thunderstorms likely to continue through broad areas of northern and eastern Australia where troughs continue to combine with high moisture levels to bring the chance of severe weather with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. The risk will contract further north and east through NSW as the trough gets a kick north by a cold front. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to a flash flooding a risk over broad areas of the NT with build up storms. A low risk of severe thunderstorms through outback WA extending further west into the SWLD with damaging winds the main concern.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday

A deep trough over eastern areas of QLD and through the NT will continue to lift large amounts of moisture and lead to severe thunderstorms developing. Severe thunderstorms a very high risk with damaging winds also a high risk too. The risk of hail is not 0 but small. The risk of thunderstorms contracts out of WA for now but that may change depending on the low pressure system evolution next week.

Stay weather aware this week, each day carries significant risk of severe thunderstorm activity, especially over northern and eastern areas of the nation, but creeping west and south as well through the outlook period as troughs pass from east to west.

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