NATIONAL 2 WEEK OUTLOOK

Headlines


  • Largely unchanged pattern ahead with the fast flow westerly wind belt over the south continuing for the best part of the coming fortnight with obviously breaks in that pattern, but the zonal flow will persist.

  • Upper high over the north with the subtropical ridge in place for central areas of the nation that has kept the area dry and clear for the past few days, will be in place for the majority of this period.

But when will the pattern flip? There are signals for the end of the first week of August and into the second week of August for this to take place but once again, likely to know more with the latest climate data sets on Tuesday so another update then or on Wednesday when the full data is available.


So I will keep the forecast largely persistence for now.


Rainfall Outlook for the coming 16 days - % chance of deviating above or below the median for this period.

Rainfall largely unchanged in it's spread, largely unchanged in the modelling that you can see in the state by state and national outlooks over recent days. I do believe however that the forecast will start to shift this week with my updates on this coming Wednesday and Friday. But for now, more wet and windy weather for the south and dry season conditions persist for the north, as is what should be observed at this time of year. Rainfall could be heavy at times with the chance of moisture being caught up in the westerly wind regime this week and into the coming weekend, these are wild card systems to watch for SA, VIC, NSW and TAS.

Temperature Outlook for the coming 16 days - % chance of deviating above or below the median for this period.

No change in the forecast data, suggesting the persistence forecasts keeps the temperatures above average overall for many locations north of the westerly wind belt, so that will be 2/3rds of the nation. All this week, the weather has been hotter than normal in may of the red shaded areas and that should continue in the zonal flow. Over the south, there could be some moderation in the colder weather over the coming week, though two bursts of colder air to watch, the surge on Tuesday over the southeast and again the big surge over the southeast once again on the weekend, which could deliver below average temperatures and snowfalls.

Rainfall Totals for the coming 16 days - Expected rainfall based off the data today.

Smoothing out the data into this chart is tricky so the foreacst carries a low confidence forecast strap due to the moisture plumes in place and the timing of fronts this week. Falls could be double this in some locations over WA, SA and VIC. I think the rainfall is near correct for inland NSW for now with light to moderate falls at times. Dry over the north apart from a few showers over QLD. The wettest part of the nation, will be western Tasmania with the westerly wind belt dominating the charts and bringing rainfall every day through the coming two weeks. Not unusual for this region

I will update this forecast once again more likely on Wednesday unless there is something of note between now and then but the forecast charts are fairly stable and you can see that in the state by state analysis tonight and in the coming days.


60 views0 comments