MORNING WEATHER WRAP - WILD WEATHER IN THE EAST - THE WEST AND NORTH SEASONAL.

You guys over in the west and north will not be ignored, it is just the east and south have been hogging it for a long while and today is no different. Active weather, high end severe thunderstorm risk for highly populated areas, significant risk to crops in some locations of SA, VIC, NSW and QLD. We can only hope that the weather does not eventuate!


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall extensive over the southeast and east in the coming days we have covered that off extensively in the video. The next rainfall event is expected to pass through the SWLD of the nation during early next week with moderate to heavy rainfall with some areas likely to exceed their monthly rainfall with this event. On the east coast, onshore winds are likely to spark showers and storms, thanks in support to the upper trough aloft. Over the tropics the showers and storms will continue, an upper high may thin them out early next week. The next rainfall chances for the south and east may come through from later next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are currently underway through southeast and central inland NSW and across the ACT. The thunderstorms have remained well behaved thanks to them forming at night but they will become aggressive later on this morning. Thunderstorms are expected to turn scattered and numerous with severe thunderstorms highly likely over the eastern districts, especially north of Sydney through the afternoon and evening where the air is more unstable due to a clearer start to the day. Supercell thunderstorms are possible from Sydney north to SE QLD with destructive winds, giant hail and flash flooding. Further showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the low passing over SA into western NSW and VIC this afternoon with small hail and gusty winds.

Thunderstorm Forecast SA - Thursday

A low pressure system has made landfall near Ceduna overnight with gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorm risk contracts to the southeast during the day with a cold and unstable airmass leading to the risk of small hail with the showers and thunderstorms. Some moderate rainfall has been observed

Thunderstorm Forecast QLD and NT - Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along a trough passing through southern QLD during Thursday afternoon with the risk of damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. There is also a chance in the purple zone for supercell thunderstorms, where tornados, giant hail and intense flash flooding may occur. The upper atmosphere supports significant convection on Thursday for this region. There are thunderstorms this morning which may dampen down the threat of the upper end severe weather and we won't know how that will transpire until we get to afternoon. The areas further north, a lot further away from the strong severe weather dynamics will see thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Some of these could have warnings on them as well. The tropics, active for this time of year.

Large Hail Risk Thursday

The risk of large hail is very high with the likely development of rotating thunderstorms throughout NE NSW, with a smaller risk extending down to about the Illawarra. Thunderstorms producing hail more likely ahead of the trough currently moving east.

Large Hail Risk QLD

The risk of large hail is very high with the likely development of rotating thunderstorms throughout SE QLD allowing for hail to be held aloft in the updraft growing in size before falling to the surface at a rate of knots. There is the risk of giant hail 5cm or greater, in the storms over the southeast inland.

Tornado Risk NSW

No change to the guidance with sufficient turning throughout the atmosphere available, with dynamic support for robust convection and that convection to be set into motion as they rise. Some of these rotating thunderstorms could produce a tornado or two. A brief isolated tornado is possible about the southeast of SA and through western VIC as a low pressure system recentres.

Tornado Risk QLD

No change to the guidance with sufficient turning throughout the atmosphere available, with dynamic support for robust convection and that convection to be set into motion as they rise. Some of these rotating thunderstorms could produce a tornado or two. Very similar to NSW.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday - QLD

Multicell and supercell thunderstorms offer the biggest chance of flash flooding for southeast inland parts of QLD with a lower risk for the central interior and over the NT this afternoon with slow moving storms.

Flash Flood Risk NSW

No change to the guidance off the upper air balloon network and modelling, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a high risk over the eastern third of NSW today. Falls of 40mm have been reported west of Canberra this morning. And that is in a region with very little surface based instability.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday - NSW

Damaging winds have been reported from parts of the southern inland overnight with multicell thunderstorms. A few linear bands of storms have passed through the southeast with gusty winds, but with the day time heating process and more instability at the surface for northern NSW, that is where you will find the damaging straight line wind issues.

Damaging Winds Risk - QLD

Damaging winds a strong chance today with active convection due to erupt this afternoon and if an organised squall line forms along the trough as it moves east, then there will be a very high chance of damaging straight line winds. Winds would be strong enough to produce tree damage.

Damaging Winds Risk SA

The damaging winds are unfolding as I type, winds over 100km/h have been reported with showers and storms overnight through the region along the West Coast. Showers and thunderstorms that fire off this afternoon may produce damaging winds and possibly produce a brief tornado.

Farmers and Graziers Risk Remainder of this week.

The BoM have cancelled the warning, but the risk in my opinion continues but should ease from Saturday for southeast areas.

Riverine Flood Risk Friday through Sunday

The riverine flood risk continues in the same areas with no change to the guidance in wrap around rainfall for southern VIC in the coming 48hrs. Plenty of rain this week has caused flooding through northeastern NSW.

DATA - More information can be found in the video at the top.


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Clearly a lot of weather on the board with the low over SA, storms over VIC, severe storms over NSW and QLD with dangerous weather quite possible for some areas. I will try and cover it all off however I will mention this - make sure you keep up to date as these charts below were issued last Friday for this event now. I don't just forecast what is happening now, I am ahead...well ahead. More to come.

Todays forecast from last Friday. Not perfect but gives you an idea of the trends we like to explore and unpack ahead of time and then refine the forecast as we go.

More soon