MORNING WEATHER WRAP - WET OVER NORTHERN NSW AND SOUTHERN QLD - BECOMING COLDER WEST.

Quite a bit going on this morning with rain and a few storms over northern NSW and across southern QLD with a pressure trough bringing moderate falls. Thunderstorms about overnight through outback NT, QLD and NSW has brought the heavier rainfall and that uneven distribution of rainfall I have spoken about.


Out west there is a cold front approaching from the west, with not much in the way of heavy rainfall with this system, the temperatures falling away the biggest feature.


That system will race across through from the west into the Bight and wrap into a low pressure system which will bring the next batch of rain and storms for southern Australia. Some of that could bring moderate falls to southern SA and into VIC and southern NSW at this stage.


Another trough is likely to develop over WA with a deep moisture in feed over WA into next week with more rain and storms possible. The tropics remain active with showers and thunderstorms about. The trough from the west will move east and spread the moisture to central and eastern areas of the nation with rainfall chances remaining moderate to high across the country.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is ongoing for the northern parts of NSW, inland QLD on your Monday and it is expected to move to the southeast and east through the day reaching the coast by this afternoon and evening and setting up camp for Tuesday. A southerly change is expected to stall out over the border region and be the focus of heavier rainfall along the coast between Coffs and Brisbane. Rain will ease from the west through NSW and QLD with a trough moving eastwards. Another front is passing through SWLD of WA bringing a burst of showers and windy weather later today. The colder air will run into the Bight and interact with warmer more humid air resulting in another low forming, that driving showers and storms into mid week for SA, VIC and southern NSW. The unsettled weather will then stick around the eastern and southeast until the weekend. Storms and showers over the tropics will continue as we go through the outlook period. If you are living out west, keep an eye on the highly anomalous rain event brewing in about a week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to form on the eastern flank of a cloud band moving through QLD and dipping into northern NSW today. Thunderstorms are expected to be under severe thresholds at this stage, but damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is possible in isolated spots, so be weather aware in the east. The overall threat is a low to moderate risk. For the NT, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue along a surface trough from the Barkly up to the Top End with scattered falls and gusty winds.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Low end risk of damaging winds north and east of a thick cloud band passing through the eastern inland of QLD extending back into NT. Winds up to 90km/h with any strong storm that develops in the region, but the risk again is quite low.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Low end risk of flash flooding on Monday through QLD and outback NT. The highest probability is along the SEQ coast and NE NSW region where a southerly change stalls out and thunderstorms in the region could produce heavy rainfall.

Riverine Flood Risk - Next 6 Weeks

Remaining very wet for the coming 6 weeks and flood watches have been issued for this first system passing through northern NSW.

DATA


12z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

It is a dog's breakfast from run to run with most models, not just the Euro showing about 3 systems on the board during the next 10 day period but the issue is from run to run on timing, placement, strength and speed of each feature. So the low confidence forecast continues with a lack of real time data being brought back into the modelling, thanks to a lack of aviation data supported by the upper air balloon network. So when looking at the charts in the coming weeks, know that going beyond about 5 days, note the rainfall and temperature forecast will bounce around a bit which we have seen with this first system, some areas forecast 30mm of rainfall getting nothing through central and eastern Australia. Now with that said, the forecast rainfall over the eastern states will continue today with another band of rain and storms moving from the southern NT into northern NSW and southern QLD with further moderate falls. The west will be dealing with a gusty cold front this afternoon with showers tonight. The southeast will feel the impacts of that system from Wednesday with showers and storms developing. A deep low is expected to for near Ag SA and then move east through VIC and southern NSW with showers and storms later this week and a cold snap. In the warm sector, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the chance of severe storms with this feature. Over the west conditions, warm up from later this week with sunshine, the north stays hot and humid with showers and storms. Another rain event is possible over WA early next week and that system racing east with some of the warmest weather so far this spring to follow the cold wintry weekend over the southeast and east.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture remains unchanged with the deep moisture layer over the eastern and southeast inland today moving north as a southerly moves through. There will be another modest shot over moisture with the front passing over SWLD of WA, but with a trough passing through QLD tomorrow, forming into a low, it will leave some moisture behind for this next trough to run into, hence the showers and storms pop up over VIC and NSW mid week and moves east. Seasonal moisture values are likely with the low pressure system passing over the southeast inland during the latter part of this week with widespread showers. Another pulse of moisture will be moving into WA early next week which could bring above average rainfall for some parts of the west or southwest of the state, something to watch and the tropics are soupy which is seasonal.

12z Euro Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

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12z GFS Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

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12z CMC Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

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