MORNING WEATHER WRAP - WE TURN TO THE STORMY CHANGE SWEEPING THE NATION MID WEEK - AND CHRISTMAS?

Lots to look at this week, even though we are quiet for most of the nation, we are going to track the weather moving into Christmas and the shift to the wet signal again as we move through the festive period and into NYE.


There is the chance of significant chance of a fairly widespread severe storm outbreak developing from next weekend and the increasing in coverage once again over Christmas into NYE and 2022.


Once we get the monsoon up and running over the northern parts of Australia is when you will find the rainfall across northern, central and eastern Australia increase dramatically. This is where the flooding risks will become elevated once again for the east and southeast but also extend to other areas which have not seen the flooding so far.


But as I have mentioned, ahead of the monsoon, the nation bakes, and once you see that, you know that mother natures air conditioner will be turned on in the not too distant future. That air conditioner is the monsoon or tropical low/cyclone activity.


Lets take a look at the short term

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall largely unchanged from last night and repeating that this week is much quieter so no major rainfall events, no severe weather events. There will be hit and miss thunderstorms across the nation daily, and some of those could turn severe, but in terms of rainfall spread and quantities, the volume will not be as high for the coming 1-2 weeks which is good news. The northern tropics is where you will find the heaviest rainfall which is normal for this time of year and that should become evident once we lose the drier air come Friday into the weekend onwards. Storms most widespread over the southeast of the nation mid week and eastern inland QLD from the weekend. The west, high based showers and storms are likely to continue most days this week but little rainfall is anticipated.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

The thunderstorm activty over the east thins out a bit during Monday as the ridge strengthens over the region. The storms isolated along the ranges and contracts north through Cape York. The trough out west continues to fuel high based thunderstorms into western SA and much of inland WA. A few of these may clip the southwest of VIC as well. The heavier rainfall with thunderstorms can be found over the tropics. No severe weather expected

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

No change expected to the change sweeping through the southeast, in fact coverage may be a little more widespread than what I have drawn in here and will review later today or tomorrow. The north still with the routine showers and thunderstorms extending into the central parts of WA. The rest of the nation is stable with a fair amount of dry air.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely to turn more scattered over the southeast of NSW and the ACT with a good chance of a few severe storms, with some damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. High based storms are expected to continue over interior parts of WA and SA. The tropics seeing the routine showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls about.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 10 Days

The pattern is settled for many of us as the wild weather stays east of the nation with the MJO pulse and the cyclone moving towards the east. The weather as quiet as a mouse until Wednesday, that is when we see showers and thunderstorms become more widespread over the north and southeast, the coverage of storms continues to increase over northern areas, and the wet weather in the southeast then travels to the eastern inland of the nation for the weekend and into next week. The west and southern portions of the nation looks relatively quiet for much of this week if you are looking for rainfall but the roller coaster ride in temperatures will be with us now. Heatwave conditions can be expected inland of the coast through northern SA and into western NSW and QLD, and that hot air will pop in and out of the southeast and east ahead of southwesterly changes.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Dry air still with us for much of this week, and it is stable warm air as well, with Tropical Cyclone Ruby stealing the moisture away from the north and east. But the moisture does begin to build up once again as we track into Christmas and the low pressure is expected to increase in coverage, leading to more rainfall appearing on the charts the further you go out from today. The drier air will persist over the far west of the nation throughout this period as the dry season continues there. The southeast will have higher humidity developing as we get closer to Christmas.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Good to see the quieter spell of weather for much of the nation where rainfall has been widespread during the past 12-15 weeks. The showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to increase over the nation from the weekend into next week, the tropics certainly leading in the way on that. I will point out that the moisture that was being forecast to come into Australia is sitting over the Pacific Ocean. That will occur a few times this Summer, so take note of the rainfall spread when the monsoon is in play. That rainfall coverage will impact Australia in January.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

12Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall is much more widespread over the nation under this solution with the humid airmass a little deeper and more low pressure lifting the moisture into showers and storms over most areas within the coming 10 days. It is an outlier on this idea but it is not unreasonable given the coverage of moisture and heat from next week.

More coming up throughout the day and looking at the medium term much more closely now with systems emerging out towards Christmas.