MORNING WEATHER WRAP - UNSETTLED IN THE EAST AND OVER THE NORTH, HOT IN THE WEST.

The stagnant weather pattern means that what you have seen today is what you will see the next few days, that is indicative of Summer in Australia.


Though the persistence of high humidity, low pressure troughs over the north and the east will keep the rainfall in these areas, so from the NT into QLD and south into NSW, the ACT and VIC.


The moist airmass leading to below average temperatures over the east with thick cloud cover, but as you run west of the divide into western NSW, over VIC, through SA and into most of WA, that is where the warm to hot, very hot weather will be found. The further west you go, the drier the air is, so the hotter the weather.


That heat will eventually spread east but it will take time, the pattern may become very slow moving through to the end of the week, which opens the door to more rain and storms for the east, but how much is dependent upon how quickly the ridge knocks the trough east out of NSW and QLD. The models struggling with the meso scale details at the moment.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall bias shifts back to the north and east for most of this week as we track a large ridge to the south of the nation which will control much of the south of the nation's weather. Dry air and hot weather for the west will likely spread east through SA and VIC. But in contrast to this, showers and thunderstorms will be featured most days through NSW, QLD and the NT with deeper moisture and a number of troughs working through. The most significant trough will come through NSW and QLD during tomorrow through to about Friday where showers and thunderstorms may increase to areas of rain with heavy falls for parts of NSW and the ACT and daily severe storms for QLD in the warmer sector. You will note the thundery weather increasing over the tropics as a deepening heat low stirs up the moist airmass leading to a flare up of showers and thunderstorms with some of those severe. The monsoonal weather approaches Indonesia and PNG later in the period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are once again likely to develop over northern parts of the NT extending through Central Australia and into the western inland of QLD, NSW and into VIC. Storms will carry the risk of damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over the NT and heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging winds over inland NSW and QLD and possibly for far northern VIC. High based dry storms over inland WA this afternoon near a developing heat low.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms continue for the northern tropics, mainly for the NT and WA, but coverage may thin out a little as the heat low begins to weaken a little. The stormy airmass will extend southeast into QLD and NSW where storms will turn severe in pockets with all modes of severe weather possible. Thunderstorms are a very low chance over far western WA but no rain expected from those so I am leaving the chart clean.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms once again featuring over the north and east of the nation with storms likely turning severe over northern NSW, much of inland QLD and into the NT where a trough is slowly working through warmer moist air. The thunderstorms likely to be more scattered and non severe for southern NSW in a cooler airmass where areas of rain will be about. Thunderstorms redevelop over WA with the inland trough deepening, some of these may bring gusty winds and light rainfall.

DATA - The GFS run is in the video for you to compare.


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is slack and unsettled for much of the nation away from the south. The showers and storms more prevalent daily over the eastern and northern areas. The rainfall associated with thunderstorms, heavy with flash flooding a high chance over the flood zones. The northern tropics, seeing an increase of showers and thunderstorms as the deepening heat lows, which form ahead of the monsoonal weather, continue to evolve and move around northern areas. The west will be hot and mostly dry, though isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. The trough will remain slow moving but will offer a refreshing change later this week, with that heat moving into SA and then into the southeast next week. The east will see heavy rainfall mid to late week before conditions clear this weekend and perhaps a drier spell developing next week with some luck while the northern tropics get organised and the pattern resets.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Moisture associated with the monsoonal weather over northern Australia clearly dictating how humid the weather will get over northern and eastern Australia. There are some hints that this first burst of monsoonal weather could land in the Pacific Ocean which would be good news for those looking for less rainfall in the east, but will keep an eye on trends. For the remainder, drier over the south and west with less moisture for much of this period will see rainfall remain lean and the air turning hotter. The east will still humid for much of this period, but a break in the high humidity may be available next week with some luck, reducing rainfall chances.

12Z Euro - Temperature Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Temperatures are remaining above average this week for the west and mainly below average in the east and relatively seasonal over northern areas, but the pattern is likely to flip next week as the tropical weather starts to become more organised, and this will help to push the heat around the nation so be prepared for a sharp rise in temperatures later this week for SA and in the southeast and east by this time next week, the west may turn cooler.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

More details on all things models and rainfall coming up shortly and a look at the week running into Christmas coming up later this morning.