MORNING WEATHER WRAP - THE WILD WEATHER CONTINUES AND FLOODING INCREASES OVER INTERIOR REGIONS.

A deepening trough and low pressure system over SA is moving steadily east and overnight there has been big falls for the NT and SA and that activity is moving eastwards today through QLD and NSW.


Some of the rainfall over the NT and SA have broken records in line with the higher than average humidity values. The remarkable rainfall is expected to be observed further east with dangerous weather today.


Lets take a look at the very latest. Before I do, the weather out west is boring and benign and warming up. The focus of weather for this video will be in areas where damage may be observed not only to crops by property too.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall now starting to come down on the charts because the first part of the heavy rainfall event has passed to the east and the final piece is coming in over eastern areas today and tomorrow before drier weather this weekend. There may be a zone as mentioned multiple times this week, where the heavy rainfall does not occur, as the low pressure system dives southeast and the trough moves northeast and that zone where the systems pull away from each other will likely see lighter falls and be spared. Where storms form through QLD and NSW along the trough, rainfall totals of 50-80mm/hr is possible which will lead to dangerous flash flooding. The rainfall tends to showers over SA today and eases to showers during Friday over VIC and NSW with the rainfall contracting to the southeast of the nation this weekend while the nation dries up. Next week the inland turns humid and thundery and the east coast sees more showers again, some of those could be heavy this time next week ahead of another low pressure system over the southeast of the nation. Thundery showers may develop over southern WA with a heat trough deepening and the tropics returning to seasonal weather.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Scattered to extensive thunderstorm activity is likely to develop in the warm sector ahead of a low pressure system through QLD and northeast NSW. Some of the storms likely to produce dangerous conditions with high end flash flood flooding and damaging winds likely to be the main feature though large hail and brief isolated tornados cannot be ruled out. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding contracting east through the NT during the morning though may continue over much of the Top End. The storm risk contracting east out of northern SA and through to VIC during day as a large rain mass moves through the region with the low pressure system, that will be keeping the surface cool and stable on the southern side of the low pressure system. But where the sun comes out or where it is warmer, severe thunderstorms are likely in advance of this system in the east. So again the most dangerous weather region in QLD and NSW.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The process of the humidity and heavy rainfall contracting north and east through the nation is continuing today with rain easing from the west through SA and it has cleared the southern NT. The main rainfall axis will be through NSW and QLD tonight and then into VIC and southeast and eastern NSW during Friday. The storm focus shifts to coastal areas of QLD during Friday before that moves offshore and moves back to the northern NT. The dry weather for the nation returns for the weekend and into next week while a cold outbreak drives showers and windy weather over the southeast. The west turns warmer and summer like....finally with mid 30s on the cards and then the warmer weather spreads eastwards through next week. The next system on the board comes through during mid next week over the southeast with further rain and storms developing at the end of the run which will form the basis of the medium term forecast package later this morning.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture is expected to sweep through the east and clear back to the north of the nation by the start of the weekend as the cold southerly wind moves through the nation, we can see that on the satellite with clearer skies. It is like a vacuum cleaner coming through and clearing out the mess. That process will be completed by Saturday. The moisture recycles through the tropics and returns from the north and west this time next week and will help to bring rain and showers back to the inland of the nation and potentially over the eastern inland with more storms back on the cards from the 18th of November.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The record humidity values are expected to move north and east out of the eastern inland of the nation and back to the tropics this weekend with seasonal values returning. Then the moisture comes back, now we have seen this moisture profile deepening from this time next week, the GFS is a little slower, the CMC is a little quicker. The Euro below shows a steady increase in moisture from this time next week and that pooling of moisture increases beyond this period. So I am still forecasting a wet and stormy end of the month for many locations.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Again your rainfall number will vary as we track the wild weather through so remain weather aware - and remember you don't have to see 100mm over your head to have flooding impact your property so keep up to date with all the hydrology forecasts as well.






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