MORNING WEATHER WRAP - THE UNSETTLED SPELL CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION

This poses a significant threat of not only flash flooding but mildew and brown rot issues for vulnerable crops throughout the east and southeast, as many are heading into harvest. But for those in the dry cotton areas, water galore to be had with significant rainfall expected through much of the eastern inland during the next 2 weeks.


After areas of VIC and NSW got hammered by heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the past 12-24hrs, the focus of heavy rainfall shifts east today. That will form the focus of the forecast today. Other areas of


For the southwest, settled for now, but your region may spawn a major rainfall event next week with showers and thunderstorms developing after a cool dry spell next week.


SA you are sitting in a changeable weather region with humidity one day, drier and cooler the next and then back to humid as the battle of the airmasses continues. The system from WA later next week may divert north of the state, but some of the models do bring severe weather risks in around a week, we will know more on that over the weekend.


The same applies for the eastern inland next week as well - that major weather system over WA will swing through to the eastern inland with widespread and storms possible, again the scale of that to be determined.


Lets look at the short term first

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains a big issue for many on the land through southeast and eastern areas of the nation who are trying to navigate harvest and this persistent rainfall is going to cause headaches. For those in NSW today, you will get a taste of the forecasting here for the last week, in terms of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms about. We saw the impacts over White Cliffs overnight with 60mm in 40mins in some locations and so for those who live in the eastern 2/3rds of the nation, this is the sort of weather we will be seeing more of as we go through the coming 10 days, in addition to what has fallen so far. Fine and dry for the southwest of WA for now, but an upper trough may deepen this time next week with showers and thunderstorms developing. The tropics remaining very active too and fueling the unusually wet weather through central interior parts of the nation. And for QLD, onshore easterly winds increasing through the period and showery weather increasing while inland areas feed off the moisture from all directions with showers and thunderstorms becoming daily.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are ongoing from overnight through the NT and down into QLD and through a rain band over NSW and the ACT. Some of the thunderstorms are non severe over NSW but the heavy rainfall could still lead to flash flooding. Another trough anchored over the NT will produce strong storms with gusty winds possible. The moisture from the NT feeds another trough down over WA with a strong chance of thunderstorms returning with a low chance of damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern with Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The model is still unchanged with the idea of 2 follow up systems to sweep the country in the coming 10 days behind the trough that is bringing rain and storms to areas of eastern NSW and southern QLD through eastern VIC. Flash flooding remains a high risk through eastern Australia and over the outback along the second trough developing over eastern WA and into southern WA this evening. That trough will then rotate through the NT and SA from Friday with scattered showers and storms with high rainfall rates leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. The trough then moves into NSW and VIC and southern QLD Saturday through Monday with severe weather risks, again the chance of flash flooding. A third system emerges through the southeast which may form into a low pressure system and tap into deep moisture levels (where this forms determines if this is a stand alone event in itself). Simultaneously there will be another upper level low over SWLD of WA bringing showers and storms through large parts of WA and into the NT. Both systems could bring severe weather to many parts of the nation next week. Safe to say there is a lot going on and if you are living through VIC, NSW and QLD, PAY ATTENTION to that system early next week coming up from the south into the southeast inland. That could pose a significant severe weather threat ahead of the next system coming out of WA through SA and then into the east mid month. The tropics, remain humid and wet with above average rainfall right through this period.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture content throughout the period is near record values through the outback and passes through south and southeast at regular intervals, helped along by troughs of low pressure bringing bursts of rain and thunderstorms with the humid airmass unable to swept out of the northern half of the nation keeping the rainfall chances elevated right throughout this period.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture values are near record values over the nation's north and east which is leading to the excessive rainfall rates and as pointed out this week in the theory, we are now seeing it play out over the nation's east and southeast with very heavy rainfall in scattered pockets during the past 18-24hrs with some areas recording a months to two months rainfall in this event alone. With deeper moisture and stronger weather systems developing in the future, we could see some areas over northern, central and eastern areas pick up record rainfall for November.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details - Note the wild card system over the SWLD of WA which we spoke about on Monday now starting to appear on all charts. That system needs careful monitoring.

CMC 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

CFS 12z- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks - NSW view

I will have more details on this coming up mid morning - this rainfall is in addition to what has fallen over the food bowl - so more details soon.

More details on the medium term mid morning as we track a very active period of weather, I am wishing everyone the best of luck with the wet weather today.