MORNING WEATHER WRAP - THE STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE EAST AND HEAT SPREAD EAST TO SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.

Finally starting to see a more traditional Spring time pattern with the heat building over the nation as days of clear skies lead to warmer weather. But with moisture lurking over the eastern states and set to merge with the warmer air aloft, that will see a return to showers and thunderstorms and high humidity, you will feel the humidity more than last week given the warmer temperatures.


For SA and WA, no real change in the forecast, you are remaining settled and dry with high pressure lingering over the southern waters of the nation, but the northern flank of that ridge sending easterly winds across these states, so no rainfall expected given the airstream is coming over the land mass.


Up north, the tropical weather continues to increase and yes we have seen evidence of tropical mischief in the medium term, that will continue to play out in coming days, one way or another, that is the models expressing the tropical weather set to play a large part in bringing more wet weather from mid month towards Christmas. The monsoon, nature's gift to the north after the build up.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall numbers across the modelling is starting to really ramp up through QLD and northern NSW which is posing some concern relating to the ongoing flooding and the chance of flooding being maintained across the region for weeks leading into Christmas. The wettest weather looks to be through inland QLD and northern NSW with coastal communities from about Port Macquarie north to the FNQ coast near Cairns to be on alert for heavy rainfall during the latter part of this outlook. Generally the next 36hrs are looking very wet for QLD and northern NSW with flash flooding under slow moving storms being the main concern. Some areas could record more than 100mm in the coming 2 days. The west and south of the nation generally dry over the coming week and the tropics are expected to remain unsettled with the coverage of the storms increasing during this outlook period. The weather may turn increasingly wet along the east coast throughout the medium term as mentioned above, this could pose a risk of flash flooding as well.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are ongoing from overnight and are expected to increase through northern NSW and southern QLD. Thunderstorms are expected to turn severe during this afternoon and this evening with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. Damaging winds and large hail is also possible but mainly through QLD. Flash flooding could be dangerous through QLD today. There will be the usual thunderstorms over northern Australia with the build up continuing.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

The upper trough over inland NSW and QLD weakens a little from Monday with areas of rain and thunderstorms continuing from Monday into Tuesday. The trough will snake down into central and southern NSW with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop throughout NSW and into eastern VIC with some gusty winds and heavy falls possible. The thunderstorm activity will ease at night. Thunderstorms will continue over northern Australia.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during Wednesday with a new trough emerging out of the SA and spreading into the east with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over eastern central and eastern VIC and then north through NSW and into southeast QLD. The coverage of thunderstorms may thin out over QLD a little. Thunderstorms will redevelop over the north but may run down the west coast with the chance of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

DATA - More can be found in the video at the top of the page.


12Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern is favouring the wet weather being in the east and the dry weather remaining over southern and western parts of the nation. This will continue for the next 7 days with the stagnant pressure pattern breaking down as we track through into the coming weekend. A reset of the pattern will allow the west to turn more humid and unsettled during the weekend into this time next week, and the chance for the east to be storm free for a few days with drier air with a ridge. However, once the pattern resets, anyone living on and east of the divide from Sydney north to about Mackay should pay attention to the rainfall guide in the medium term as onshore winds may bring about heavy rainfall and thunderstorms from about the 6/7th of the month. Moisture from the tropics will also creep south into inland troughs producing widespread rainfall and thunderstorms for the north and scattered falls over the interior.

12Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Moisture remains very high over QLD and NSW which is expected to move further south mid week with a trough passing through from SA into the southeast and likely to drag that moisture into itself firing more of that unsettled weather for the back half of this week. Drier air over the west will stay there for the best part of the next 10 days but the moisture is set to pass south from the tropics and into troughs of low pressure in the medium term bringing the next batch of rainfall potential for the region. The tropics entrenched in deeper moisture and unsettled weather likely to remain in place as a result. The moisture from the tropical north looks to travel southwards during the medium term. Keep an eye on the Coral Sea.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information found in the video

More details coming up throughout the day with the medium term forecast, see if we are staring down more flooding potential for the east with the above data off the GFS and what are the tropics doing?