The weather has been very active over the past week and will continue to be so. The troughs over the central and eastern parts of the nation are running into high levels of atmospheric moisture. This will mean scattered storms will lead to flash flooding for much of VIC, NSW and into the ACT and northwest through to northern and eastern SA and then into the NT where widespread rainfall will continue.

The monsoon over the north of the nation will drive the showers and thunderstorms with a gusty northwest to westerly flow driving the wet weather.

A tropical low is expected to form within the trough over central NT during the weekend and that could move west into the northwest of WA with heavy rainfall and strong winds developing, once again the flood risk increasing.

For the east coast of the nation, showers about from time to time, but the rainfall totals light. Next week, we may see a trough develop along the coast within the easterly flow, which may see showers and thunderstorms increasing and turn to more widespread rainfall possible in the short and medium term.

With the positive SAM and the monsoon in play, that does lead to a wet phase over northern Australia with heavy rainfall already featuring in previous positive SAM phases, so it would be ill to ignore the risk of further heavy rainfall developing under such guidance.

The west may be dry for now, but your fortunes could also be changing.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much change from last night in terms of the confidence in rainfall distribution and intensity over the coming week. Still have the hit and miss showers and thunderstorms through SA and VIC over the coming days, they will be packing a punch through the outlook period. When the trough gets to central VIC and NSW on Friday through the weekend, the coverage of thunderstorms may increase again with heavy falls becoming scattered. Will take a look at that this afternoon. The monsoon trough is set to waft around northern inland parts of the WA, the NT and QLD with heavy rainfall continuing and outback flooding potential. The east coast need to watch the forecasts later in the period, heavy rainfall may redevelop along the coast with onshore winds and a trough combining. That could be something to watch in terms of severe weather potential. Finally the tropical low over the NT will move into northern WA over the weekend into next week with heavy falls extending through parts of WA and this trend is increasing in the guidance. Will be watching that closely as this could spread rainfall through SA and VIC in the medium term if the low moves through WA. Moisture from that feature will waft eastwards and combine with inland troughs.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will redevelop over southeast and eastern Australia and extend in a broad band north through western QLD into the NT and northern WA. Storms likely turning severe through many areas with flash flooding and damaging winds the main concern. Large hail may feature through the southeast, especially over eastern SA and western VIC. The thunderstorm risk may persist in VIC into the overnight hours as well as over the Top End and Kimberly.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will redevelop over VIC and NSW in more widespread fashion, isolated over eastern SA and through central WA on Thursday. Thunderstorms likely to turn more severe over VIC and NSW with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern there. Thunderstorms will cover much of the NT where intense rainfall may be observed and dangerous flash flooding to develop. The north, gusty storms may develop in more numerous numbers as a tropical low forms over the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will redevelop along a slow moving trough over VIC and NSW once again with storms turning severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible. Dangerous flash flooding cannot be ruled out over central and eastern VIC and into southern NSW. Thunderstorms will extend back north through western NSW into northeast SA and through much of the NT and into northern WA. The storms may produce dangerous amounts of rainfall in quick time leading to flash flooding. Thunderstorms across the tropics may be gusty at times through the northern tropics into northeast tropical areas as well.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information about the short and medium term breakdown with GFS and to compare with the Euro.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Not a whole lot of change from last night which is great, but the position of the systems in play means that the rainfall distribution changes from run to run. The tropical low pressure system over the northwest will bring heavy rainfall. The rainfall over the inland of the NT and western QLD with a stalled boundary with heavy moisture will lead to heavy falls. Flood risks will continue. The south will finally see a slow clearance of that humidity from southern areas of SA and VIC through the coming 5 days but it may return ahead of a stronger system this time next week. Onshore winds may become more unstable next week over the east coast with heavy showers developing over the east coast of NSW and southeast QLD. There is a lot of weather on the board and forecasts may change dramatically in pockets of the nation.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Deep moisture remains in place with the high chance of rainfall across many areas of inland areas of the nation with flooding a risk over the northern and central parts of the nation continuing. We are seeing a drier airmass starting to move into southern parts of the nation now so we may have a drier picture for parts of southern SA for a period which will move into southern VIC during the weekend. Overall the high moisture content will dominate the remainder of the nation's east and north with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms continuing. The monsoon can be clearly seen further south of the tropical north, also driving very high moisture levels into the nation's inland. This will continue. Over the east next week, onshore winds and deep moisture could see showery weather continuing. If a trough forms, that rainfall could turn heavy. A tropical low forming in the monsoon trough may bring deeper moisture through WA.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for further information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

More weather coming up throughout the afternoon with your state based forecasts. Enjoy your Australia Day!!!