MORNING WEATHER WRAP - THE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY BUT A NICE CLEANOUT IS COMING PLUS HEAT!

The weather is gradually contracting further east and north today, with the wet spots around the southeast where overnight flooding has continued to build and rainfall totals well over 100mm as advertised in many spots in southeast NSW and into VIC.


The heavy rainfall is slowly moving out the region as we track into Friday afternoon over the east, the last of the storms moving north through QLD and into the NT.


The west has cooled down and that nice refreshing airmass will move inland today providing a reprieve from the heatwave.


However, the heat is set to spread east through SA, into the NT across to inland QLD, NSW and much of VIC. The coastal areas over the south still like they will be spared the prolonged heat, but a warm to hot day here and there will feature.


Perhaps now a stormy change mid week for southeast NSW and the ACT once again mid week but nowhere near the volume of weather we have seen.


The tropics, routine weather is expected but watching that area of disturbed weather in the Arafura Sea come next week, will it have any impact on the NT or WA?


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is easing from today over the east and southeast as the upper low and trough moves further east taking the rainfall offshore. The rainfall over the north of the nation remains at seasonal values with the afternoon and evening storm cycle. The rest of the nation, quiet rainfall wise, with a large ridge developing from the west. While it is keeping much of WA and SA dry this week so far, it will extend to VIC and much of NSW and QLD. So a different week on the way with only showers and storms for the northern tropics daily and perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms over the Alpine regions mid next week. Coastal showers for QLD and northern NSW is also possible but not a great deal in it, no washouts expected. This is the driest weather the nation has seen since about September.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms continue to contract east and north through the nation today with a trough contracting east and north over QLD and NSW. The upper low is expected to bring local thunder amongst the rain band over the southeast of NSW and VIC today. A trough in the west may also bring a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms for central and northern areas with light rainfall expected. Thunderstorms could be heavy over the east coast as the trough moves away with local flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms mainly impacting the northern tropical areas with trough stalling out at the base of the tropical regions. North of there, thunderstorms will be strong with heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. Stable airmass elsewhere.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Convergent winds over the Great Dividing Range in NSW and QLD may produce a few showers and thunderstorms. These are not likely to be severe. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms for interior parts of WA with a stalled trough, light falls expected. Thunderstorms continue over the northern tropics with these unlikely to be severe

DATA


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

A deep low offshore NSW today will move further east today, with rain heavy at times for Gippsland and the South Coast. Some windy weather also about the southeast of NSW and VIC will ease later today as the low moves east. Otherwise the rest of the nation is drier and will remain that way into the weekend. Just a few storms about eastern QLD and that may persist in isolated spots through the weekend but the main rainfall focus will shift to the northern tropics. Hot weather from the northwest interior will spread southeast and east during the weekend and remain in place away from the coast all of next week so Summer fans, it will be a very different week of weather. Some locations could get into a low grade heatwave. Coastal areas will have a rollercoaster ride in terms of temperatures as weak frontal/troughs pass through. Some of these may initiate a few thundery showers at times over Alpine areas of VIC and NSW but otherwise these should be dry. The next major change is right at the end of the run which could fuel a broader thundery outbreak for central and eastern parts of the nation.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Note the moisture content being propelled back to the northern tropics from tomorrow and watch the tropical low over the Coral Sea pushing southeast taking a deep moist airmass into the Tasman Sea, rendering the nation relatively dry. This will persist into next week and high pressure at the surface, generally keeping most areas warm to hot and sunny. The weather turns more moist as we see the flow tend easterly over QLD and the NT and the moisture from the tropical north of WA gets drawn south into a trough moving east later next week, that sets up a much more humid and unstable period from about the 19/20th for the nation, so it is a good dry spell for many locations.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall easing over the southeast today and once we lose the low pressure system over the southeast, the nation is relatively dry and settled for the best part of a week.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for more. The good news for many over the inland and the flood zones, the weather is expected to be dry for most areas for the week ahead but the rainfall will return towards the week of Christmas.

I will have your 6 week outlook coming up soon.

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