The weather is starting to contract out of SA today with the severe weather ongoing for NSW, northern VIC and much of QLD. It has been a noisy night for some with thundery rain pounding down in many areas and there is plenty more on the way.

The west in stark contrast remains hot and sunny with easterly winds and settled skies. The north of the nation is looking to remain near seasonal with the routine showers and storms.

The main focus of weather for the short and medium term is in the east still with severe weather risks continuing for a number of days and possibly again next week leading to major flooding.

With the risk of the temperatures moving above the average through not just WA and into SA, the weather may support more severe thunderstorms over the southern and southeast of the nation when deeper moisture moves in.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall extensive, heavy and leading to flooding over NSW and QLD in the coming days and possibly over the northeast and east of VIC. Flash flooding also a high chance with thunderstorms anywhere through the eastern inland as well. The rain will move out of SA and clear tonight with a drier period for the state and continuing for WA with warm to hot weather. The tropics will remain unsettled with the showery weather increasing with heavy afternoon thunderstorms. The wet weather is anticipated to hang around during the weekend and into next week before another system approaches, leading to more widespread rainfall developing.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread throughout Thursday with ongoing thunderstorms from overnight with flash flooding risks persisting for much of the day. Fresh storms developing through QLD and northern NSW carry the risk of large hail and damaging winds. One or two tornados cannot be ruled out as well. Thunderstorms over the northern tropics also carry the risk of flash flooding and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening. Flash flooding will be dangerous in some locations.

DATA - You can find the GFS solution in the video and compare with the Euro below.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

A very unsettled period of weather with this widespread rainfall event moving through during the coming 48hrs as the main low passes east. The widespread low pressure begins to lift into QLD and weakens before that same trough strengthens next week with northeast winds once again running over the Coral Sea pumping moisture into this feature leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms most days next week with additional flash flood risks with heavy rainfall. At this stage this impacts NSW and QLD more than VIC. The west stays dry and hot and that heat will move east but modify under a humid airmass. The tropics seeing an increase in activity.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture persists and does not clear the eastern parts of the nation, with the feeling of high humidity only coming down in line with a cooler southeasterly change, so it will be humid, just cooler and humid with further showers. But note next week as we warm up, the humidity increases once again over VIC, NSW and much of QLD maintains the levels. The NT and remaining tropics also very soupy pumping moisture southwards.

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video on all of these.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

The heavier rainfall in the medium term being shifted north, but I would breathe just yet through NSW and VIC as this will change.

More details coming up throughout the day on the medium term looking at the first week of December, the prospects of finally getting nationwide warmth and what that means in terms of rainfall and more details on the La Nina.