MORNING WEATHER WRAP - THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH WITH FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER NATIONALLY.

There is a lull in the severe weather risks, I refuse to classify the heatwave over desert areas as anything severe as other agencies do, at this time, the weather is what you expect for December, though it is baking over the outback.


The trough that brought the gusty storms into the southeast on Wednesday is now weakened over the eastern inland of NSW and into southeast QLD with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing.


Tropical weather has been fairly quiet against seasonal averages and will likely be so once again today with a hot airmass about, leading to elevated heat levels, but it will ease soon.


For the southwest mild weather continues, the heat builds in SA and lovely settled weather for southern NSW and over much of VIC with a ridge.


The weather turns as we get into the weekend with the potential for a nasty batch of storms for NSW and into QLD with severe storms returning to northern WA and the Top End.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is increasing across all models now for the coming 10 day period. The rainfall through the weekend with a trough passing from SA through VIC into NSW could produce strong to severe storms intially but assist in the development of a mid level thundery rain band overnight Saturday through Sunday. The storms and rain contracts into northern NSW and southern QLD for Sunday and Monday and then weakens. Now over the northern tropics, the rainfall is expected to become more widespread as thunderstorms increase in coverage from the weekend and into next week, this allowing for moisture from these storms to shear south and southeast/west next week, feeding troughs over the nation and resulting in more humid, warm and thundery weather across large parts. As we approach Christmas, we should see many states caked in deep moisture and more thundery weather while the tropical north sees heavier rainfall developing near a slow moving tropical wave which may organise into a tropical low. So we are trending wetter as we go, and a wet end to 2021 is looking like a good forecast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop over central and northeastern NSW and into southeast QLD with some storms possibly turning severe with damaging winds the most likely threat. Thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the northern tropics after a few quieter days. A developing trough over WA will see a few non severe storms over the southern interior.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will redevelop over parts of southeast QLD and northeast NSW during Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Thunderstorms over the northern tropics may turn more organised as we track into the afternoon with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. Non severe storms are expected to extend down a trough from northern WA through to the Eyre Peninsula along the next trough.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Strong wind fields aloft and a port of mid level moisture will be lifted by a trough producing showers and storms, some severe through southeast states extending northwest back over western NSW and southwest QLD. Damaging winds are the main issue Saturday. Thunderstorms over the northern tropics may turn heavy with flash flooding and damaging winds over the Darwin/Daly.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern now revealing the system over the weekend for the south and east could pack a bit more of a punch than what was thought so scattered to numerous showers and storms this weekend, some severe, and a band of rain Sunday for inland NSW could result in moderate rainfall for those on and west of the divide and for pockets of central and eastern VIC. The trough then moves north into QLD next week and stalls out and becomes the dominant feature triggering showers and storms through the region for much of next week. The high pressure system following the front and trough in the southeast looks to park itself a little further south next week allowing for easterly winds to redevelop, bringing showers to the NSW and QLD coasts. The northern tropics also now looking more active from the weekend through to Christmas and a moderate chance of a tropical low to form near and north of the NT which may enhance rainfall after a very hot spell. For southern Australia the weather is relatively seasonal but the humidity will be felt just after this period.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The PW values animation shows that very dry air is now being eroded by the deeper moisture being pulled in from the north and east, with troughs setting up over the western, central and eastern inland areas. As these troughs deepen, the showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread post this weekend. So next week expect more humid weather if you are living through northern and eastern Australia and by the time we get to Christmas it will be feeling more humid through much of southeast Australia as it appears the new ridge of high pressure is ridging further south of the nation than the current location of the high pressure. The western third of the nation likely to remain drier with settled weather closer to the ridge throughout this period and southern Australia also dry for much of this period but tending hotter!

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

More coming up throughout the day, make sure you come back and check regularly.