MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS MOVE INTO SA - WARM IN THE EAST, COLDER WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTHWEST.

The spring roller coast ride with the high amplitude pattern continues for the nation with well below average temperatures over the southwest moving further east thanks to a trough passing through the state and a new low pressure system approaching today.


Ahead of the trough over SA and the southeast and eastern states, the weather is warm to hot with a northerly flow. Conditions are becoming unsettled across SA with the lead trough so expect scattered high based showers and thunderstorms today in the state with gusty winds. Rainfall mainly light. This activity moves into western VIC and NSW later this evening.


The tropics, hot, humid and unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with a trough deepening. There have been some isolated falls over 50mm throughout the NT and northern WA in recent days and these will become more scattered in the coming week.


The east, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase this weekend, with the trough from NSW lifting north. Some storms may be severe.


Another system is expected to develop next week, replicating a similar pattern to this coming event.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very low confidence in terms of what you get due to the nature of the rainfall distribution, however the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the course of the next 10 days will be rather widespread. Rain increasing over the southeast today, especially SA with a trough passing through with showers and thunderstorms about. A low pressure system moving over Perth is continuing to bring record October rainfall with cold conditions today and that low is the system to watch if you are living through SE SA and Western Victoria. That system will run along the coast with a swathe of heavy rainfall near that feature, but if it is further south, the rainfall will be offshore, if it is further north, the heavier rainfall will be further north, so quite tricky to determine how much you get from this system. Otherwise showers and thunderstorms will return to NSW and QLD, but parts of southern NSW and the ACT may remain dry through the remainder of the week into the weekend. The tropics look very active and will be the catalyst to the next system forming over WA with moisture streaming south and east through the nation into the next trough which will drive widespread showers and storms in about a week from WA through SA and into NSW and VIC. The west will see a drying trend after today's unusual weather.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are ongoing from the overnight plume of convection over pockets of the NT and SA. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for damaging winds gusts overnight through interior parts of SA. These storms are expected to progress southeast and east with strong gusty winds possible this afternoon. The storms locally severe through the outback with damaging winds. Colder air with a low pressure system moving into southwest may produce a few thunderstorms along the southern coast of WA and extend a bit inland. A few pockets of thunder also possible through QLD. The heaviest rainfall with any thunderstorm that forms will be found over the Top End and Kimberly.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is highly volatile at the moment with all the ingredients there for a disruptive spell of weather for those of you on the land from WA through to QLD and NSW. The SWLD has already received record rainfall for October for some locations and this is a signal of what is on the way for parts of the south and east in the coming weeks. The IOD is playing a part in all the moisture and thunderstorm impacts we have observed in recent weeks and that will persist for the next 4-6 weeks. So for those of you who have bought a few days of drier weather, which may persist into next week, make the most of it. These periods of drier weather with become hard to find as we run into the Christmas period based off all the data that I have shared in recent days and this morning and you can see in the data sets below that this is well supported. The system in the short term that has a high impact is the low pressure system that forms off SA tomorrow and moves close to if not over the SE of SA and Western VIC. The trough that accompanies this system will spark another round of severe thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday for NSW and QLD, with damaging weather once again possible for northern NSW and southeast QLD Friday into Saturday. So be weather aware. The next system coming in from SA next week comes with high humidity which may linger for 5-10 days into the medium term creating headaches for farmers with crops in the ground with higher rainfall chances and the risk of fungal issues.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture content as spoken about above carries it's own issues away from severe weather risks and higher rainfall, which will also be about during this period. Warm and humid air will be dislodged from the tropics and above average moisture levels for a longer period of time can be expected for the northern 2/3rds of the nation with fits and bursts of moisture passing through southern coastal areas as troughs and fronts move through dragging the front in.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

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12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

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12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

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