MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS FOR THE EAST AGAIN, SHOWERS DEVELOP SOUTHEAST - WARMER OUT WEST.

And the north remaining tropical and soupy with showers and thunderstorms about, which are expected to increase in coverage over the next week, the catalyst for the weather to start turning towards the end of the month and into November for southeast and eastern areas, you got it - right as we enter harvest for many.


But until then, fairly settled conditions for wide areas of the southeast and eastern inland as well as the northwest and western interior of the nation. Ridging in place helping to keep the weather nice and settled for large parts of Ag Australia.


There is likely to be a round of strong to severe storms for northeast NSW and southeast and eastern QLD today and once again on Saturday as a trough deepens and lifts residual moisture in place, as easterly winds continue. Another round of strong to severe storms is likely on Monday and Tuesday which may produce more problems for southeast and central QLD. A very active start to storm season.


For the southeast and remainder of the eastern inland, those wanting rainfall you will have to wait about a week. For those not wanting rainfall in these regions you have got about a week to sort yourself out before the next wave of instability arrives.


The west is warm this weekend but your run of below average temperatures and continued cool Spring continues early next week.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be lean over the eastern inland, west of the Great Dividing Range, extending into large parts of SA, northern VIC and maybe as far west as interior WA. The upper ridge holding the moisture back over northern and eastern Australia and that is where you will find rainfall in the short to medium term. The rainfall over the southeast drawn in here is for a weak front passing through today, then you turn dry until this time next week. All eyes on rounds of severe weather for QLD and eastern NSW over the coming days and next week for QLD. The tropics, may end up being the wettest part of the nation, especially the northern NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are once again likely for parts of the east of QLD and into northeast NSW with a trough lingering, some of these thunderstorms could turn severe with all modes of severe weather possible. The tropics active, with a number of showers and thunderstorms possible through the afternoon and evening. Some could turn gusty and marginally severe from the Gulf Country through to the Katherine and Roper Districts later.


DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The surface pressure pattern is somewhat unchanged from overnight, just be aware that if you are living from SA through VIC and into western and central NSW, your forecast carries a low confidence strap. The west will be seeing mild to warmer weather this weekend ahead of another cooler spell of air next week which will continue the cool season. The tropics, very active and likely to be the wettest part of the nation. That moisture with showers and thunderstorms gradually moving south over the coming 10 days. It will eventually spill into troughs over southeast and eastern inland Australia as pointed out in the video - all models see something different, so low confidence forecasting applies once again.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies shows the tropics becoming more sultry and unsettled and that moisture being trapped in the easterly flow will mean that the rainfall will increase through the coming 10 days and extend southwards as the moisture is dislodged from the tropics. Dry air at the same time will be trapped over the eastern inland of the nation which will keep skies dry for now with troughs passing through in dry fashion from SA through NSW and VIC. The east coast will see showers from time to time with thunderstorms as troughs lifts the moisture that is on the northern edge of the upper high and ridge. The west will see cooler drier southwest to southerly winds next week, though moisture from the north and northeast will be transported southwest during the outlook bringing back rainfall chances to the interior.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

The Euro is again printing out more convective rainfall for much of the nation, which is why you are seeing a patchwork of rainfall rather those sweeping bands which are to the south of the nation with frontal weather and monsoonal weather to the north of Australia. So no major trigger for widespread concentrated rainfall at this stage. This is typical for this time of year as the nation warms and we say goodbye to the westerly wind regime to the south and welcome the tropical easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia and inland troughs. For now your rainfall will vary over much of the nation from place to place and it will chop and change from run to run as there is little skill in forecasting exactly what you get ahead of time in random warm airmass thunderstorm activity.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation -Next 16 days

Refer to video for more details - note the deterministic data (single run) is drier for the east.

GFS 12z Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation -Next 16 days

Refer to video for more details - note the ensemble is wetter - which is the better data set to use as there are 35 members feeding into this solution.

CMC 12z Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation -Next 16 days

This is not impossible as an outcome given the moisture over the northern areas of the nation - this model has performed well against the medium term all year.

Harvest update coming up later this morning, we will review the climate drivers as well and then looking at more details into the medium term too, important to get some clarity on the data for the next system on the board later in the week. How hot will it get and can we expect more decent rainfall for the southeast and east??