MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS FOR NSW, COOLER OVER THE SOUTH AND HEATING UP OUT WEST.

The weather continues to chop and change from location to location over the coming days with the pressure patterns beginning to reset this weekend, with the heat returning to the west, the southeast cooler and the east turning unsettled once more.


The northern tropics as mentioned holding the key to whether severe weather returns into mid month and a very wet Christmas nationally is experienced.


At this time the short term is showing fairly benign weather for most locations with high pressure for southern and central parts of the nation keeping most areas dry and settled. The two wet spots, back over the east and the north as per normal.


Storms likely severe today over the SE of NSW and the ACT in particular with the northern tropics also in line for gusty storms.


Otherwise things quiet for now elsewhere.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall guidance from beyond the weekend is poor, as the models struggle with the placement of tropical weather in relation to northern Australia and then the moisture spread throughout Australia fuelling rainfall events later next week and indeed into the medium term (more on that later). The rainfall is lean over the south and far west which remains of higher confidence with the synoptic setup favouring rainfall over northern and eastern Australia. There does appear that the showers will increase over the east coast of NSW and QLD this weekend into next week with a developing inland trough over QLD and NSW next week kicking off the next batch of storms. The models (as you can see below) vary in placement and intensity of rainfall throughout the east from VIC through NSW/ACT and into QLD. The weather becoming more unstable over northern Australia and this moisture will eventually spill into WA which will be lifted by a west coast trough later next week. Will we see a tropical low over the NT or WA? It is not known.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are likely to develop for far eastern VIC and into southeast NSW extend into central and northwest NSW. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe over the southeast and central NSW with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. Routine showers and thunderstorms over the tropical areas of the NT and northern WA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop along a stalled trough laying east to west through northern NSW. Storms may be heavy at times about northeast NSW and southeast QLD and damaging winds for inland areas of northern NSW and southern QLD. More routine thunderstorm activity for tropical NT and WA, spreading to Cape York throughout the evening.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

A stalled boundary remains over northern NSW and southern QLD keeping the storms in the region, mainly during the afternoon and evening. A middle level trough is likely to emerge through central SA and push into the eastern trough and this may lead to more severe weather developing with storms over the flood zones. Up north the showers and thunderstorms will continue with the thunderstorm risk beginning to spread south throughout the NT.

DATA


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is rather volatile from run to run from all agencies and will continue. So one run may look drier in your area out east, to only turn very wet the next, so caution is required interpreting the data by yourself at the moment given the many influences in play. The weather over the west and south carries a higher confidence with a drier airmass and stable weather near high pressure moving through the Bight Waters. Over the north and east, the easterly winds will continue for the best part of the outlook and trend more unstable, especially over the northern tropics, where the monsoonal flow is starting to move closer to the northern states. The weather is expected to turn wetter over the east next week with the stalled trough from the weekend being once again propelled west, picking up moisture and more showers and storms with warm to hot weather expected to continue from Monday through most of next week. SA and WA remains the driest for now with temperatures becoming hot, potentially the first heatwave of the season for WA is on the cards.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture content over the east remains stubbornly high under the prevailing easterly wind regime, which will be lifted by troughs dotted through the inland of the nation. The airmass much drier further west, which can heat more efficiently leading to hotter weather. The area of interest is over the north where PW values are getting very high as the monsoonal flow approaches.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video.

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

It is picking up the tropical low over the NT, and like GFS, it will come and go from run to run. This is expressing the deeper moisture spreading through the nation from the medium term (mid month onwards).

Your latest 6 week outlook due mid morning and will take a look at the medium term in greater detail. Maybe we may see a reduction in rainfall with some luck for southeast Australia if the tropical weather cards fall the righr way.