MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS BACK FOR THE EAST SOME SEVERE - FAIRLY QUIET ELSEWHERE

Fairly similar weather to yesterday as the nation is under the influence of a meridional pattern, which has allowed the colder unstable air to be propelled north through to QLD helping to spark the hail and storm risks, but also allowing for a nation to warm up with the gradual southward movement of the humidity and higher temperatures further south.


The blocking pattern in the Tasman which is not uncommon during this phase, is expected to bring more settled and dry weather over the southern and southeast inland for the next little while. A weak front coming through on Friday night into Saturday will bring a burst of rainfall to southern VIC and TAS. That weak front will spark the trough again and bring another round of showers and thunderstorms throughout the north, east and perhaps the southeast of the nation over the weekend.


Severe thunderstorms are again possible with this sequence.


In the west of the nation, it will remain dry and warmer as we go through the weekend with a northerly flow. The next change will likely move through during Monday afternoon or Tuesday with another shot of colder air passing over the SWLD. Rainfall not as extensive.


The tropics remain active, as mentioned, you need to look beyond your state during this time of year to see where the next rainfall event is coming from, especially in the southern states. The tropics now influence rainfall, stop looking for cold fronts, as they won't be the driving force.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall again is focused over the eastern seaboard and through the tropics this weekend into early next week. That is courtesy of showers and thunderstorms, so once again the uneven distribution of rainfall continues for the east and over the north. A weak front also bringing a burst of light to moderate rainfall for southern Victoria later tomorrow and then clearing Saturday. Then for those over SA, western NSW and QLD and much of inland VIC, we have to wait until this time next week for the next batch of showers and thunderstorms moving in, thanks to the moisture pooling over the north and northwest of the nation. Most of the data sets available via your apps this morning in these regions are rather dry, but the more detailed and broader data sets are wetter. So expect the forecast to likely increase for these areas as we go during the coming 4-5 days. Otherwise the tropics, wet and humid, with above average rainfall and that above average rainfall shield will likely come into inland WA and SA through the period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms once again likely during the afternoon and evening over the northeast of NSW and throughout the southern coastal areas of QLD through to about Townsville and inland to the GDR. Severe thunderstorms more likely through QLD today with large to giant hail, damaging to destructive winds (isolated tornado) and flash flooding a lesser chance at this time. Thunderstorms this morning will increase over northeast NSW this afternoon and this is where we will see severe weather possible.

QLD and NT Thunderstorm Forecast

Severe thunderstorms should wind down in the coming hour or two. They will be back during Thursday afternoon and evening in the same zones with the risk of severe thunderstorms once again. All modes of severe weather possible. They may continue about the Central Coast overnight and early morning and especially about the islands. Afternoon thunderstorms could be gusty through the Top End, especially inland of Darwin.

NSW Thunderstorm Forecast

Thunderstorms once again popping up over the northeast of the state, more likely over the far northeast where storms may turn severe, though again the risk probably more likely through QLD. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall likely to feature if storms turn severe, the large hail risk likely over QLD once again.

DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is fairly unchanged from yesterday, it is showing the drying period for the southeast and southern inland of the nation with an upper high. The strong to severe storm outbreak is expected to continue right through to mid next week, and a heads up on severe weather once again for southeast QLD and northeast NSW. This again could be a high impact event. The weather over the west of the nation drier this weekend with warmer weather but another cool pop of air is expected next week. As mentioned, the system only bring light falls. The northern tropics is the weather to watch, for those wanting more rainfall over SA, VIC and NSW, that is the area of interest through the weekend into next week, lets see how much moisture gets dragged into the eastward moving trough over the south this time next week.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

I showed the GFS run of the moisture into the medium term in the video, but as mentioned, the ridge and dry air will combine to bring down rainfall chances for much of SA, VIC and NSW, blocking the pattern over the east coast and weather coming out of the west. Perhaps a chance to dry out and prepare your properties ahead of the next drop of rain in this region. The north turning very wet and humid, that humidity will play a part in creating issues in the coming months for those in the food bowl of the nation. The west seeing relatively seasonal values and the moisture remaining trapped over QLD and northern NSW with a trough meandering west and then east. This will see the rainfall remain almost daily for the next 10 days.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more

I will have more on the storm outbreak for the east today and a look at the nasty storm outbreak next week which could be high impact. When is the rain returning and how much for the southeast? More on that too coming up. And a look at the climate drivers by lunchtime.