MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS BACK FOR THE EAST, SETTLING DOWN IN THE WEST - FINE OVER SOUTHEAST.

After yet another active day of weather where the new hail record for Australia was recorded north of Mackay, 16cm stones falling, more storms are expected this afternoon and evening for the same region and extending back south into NSW. Some chance of a few severe storms once again through the eastern seaboard, we will see whether we get another round of giant/gorilla hail!


The remainder of the southeast and eastern inland should remain fine, there are a few clusters of showers for southeast VIC and along the east coast of NSW but they won't make it past the GDR.


Fine for SA though cloud increasing from the west, there is a few showers passing over western areas this morning with the chance of some thunder.


The weather for WA is expected to ease today, showers about this morning tending more isolated with winds easing.


And up along the tropical north, the old song of dance with showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly between 2-10pm.


Lets take a look

FORECAST


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall has eased over WA after the front from yesterday moved on east. The remains of that system bringing light patchy falls into western SA and some high based thunder. The showers over the southern coast of NSW will continue to ease this morning, but increase for Central NSW up to Central QLD with thunderstorms returning to the forecast, some are expected to be severe today. The tropics are also expecting showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The pattern remains mostly dry for most of SA, western NSW, VIC and southwest QLD with an upper ridge or the coming week. The west also turns dry until this time next week with the showers and storms expected to continue for most of northern NT and QLD, wrapping into a trough through parts of eastern QLD. The moisture from the tropics will eventually dislodge and be projected south and southeast through the nation for the end of the month with showers and thunderstorms returning for SA, VIC and NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern parts of NSW and QLD, mainly in the range from Taree to about Mackay once again where severe thunderstorms are possible with all modes of severe weather possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form once again from the NT and extend across QLD and into the Kimberly where these could be gusty. And high based storms possible for inland SA with gusty winds but overall the risk is quite low.

DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

I am siding with the Euro solution for the outlook and you can see that the moisture streams back from the northwest through southeast with showers and thunderstorms returning throughout much of the nation from mid next week into the following weekend. Until then conditions will remain dry in the interior parts of these states with ridging in place. The stormy weather continues over northeast and eastern parts of the nation most days until about Sunday when we see conditions clear. The west will dry out from mid to late this week with a new high passing through with a warmer weekend. Another change will bring showers back next week with light falls for now and a cooler shift. That system will be the one that knocks out the ridging over the east and brings the humidity down from the north and feeds the trough for showers and storms to redevelop.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The feature to watch is the block over the Tasman Sea in the coming days, which is creating some interesting weather for the east coast but keeping weather quiet for the south and interior parts of the nation, keeping the drier air and ridging in place. The other feature to watch, the moisture pooling over the north and northeast of the nation, that will run around the periphery of the upper high and then be transported south into a new system coming out of WA with rainfall chances coming up for the dry parts of SA, NSW and VIC from this time next week. That moisture may be held up over the southeast IF the pattern remains slack, bringing a multi day storm event, the Euro pushes it through fairly efficiently but that may change. The remainder of the north and east looks soupy and unsettled with the onshore flow and the west continuing the above average moisture values with each system, which brings above average rainfall chances.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

More details can be found in the video.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

More details can be found in the video.

CMC 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

More details can be found in the video.

I will have your medium term forecast later this morning with a look at the soil moisture, temperature over the coming 6 weeks, with the risk of flooding to be updated and a look at the humidity values coming in from the north and the issues that could pose to you out on the land.