MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORMS AND SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND SOUTH

That is the theme of the weather this week. The soupy unstable airmass over the northwest of WA will move south and east through the NT and into SA and then onwards to the eastern states this week, headlining the first in a series of troughs and low pressure systems moving from northwest/west to southeast/east through the nation for the first half of November.


The pattern is fairly set in terms of the conveyor belt of moisture and low pressure working in tandem bringing unsettled weather throughout the nation, especially northern and eastern areas of the nation.


We have seen some excessive rainfall already over parts of the NT and northwest WA with some gusty winds and cooler than average weather. Get prepared to see more of that.


I know that many of the Australian agencies have now started to issue their headlines ahead of schedule, perhaps to get ahead of the potential disruption to harvest, however we have been talking about this possibility since July and here we are.


Now we are dealing with a very active period of weather in the short term which will take us through November and into December.


Lets take a look.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 days

The wettest part of the country is expected to be over the NT into eastern parts of northern WA and extending through to northwest SA. We are seeing some more clarity in the modelling for the rainfall to then shift southeast at times into southern and southeastern states where the distribution will be determined by the position of troughs as they waft around the southeast and east. The cycle repeats itself about 2 times through this period with the chance of heavier falls over southern SA, VIC, NSW and QLD than what is shown here. With the uneven distribution of rainfall as mentioned, some areas will miss out even if you are shaded in pink and red, so be aware of that. The humid weather will dominate the nation for the coming 10 days, with the far southwest sitting under a more stable and cooler air flow keeping the heavier rainfall to the east.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms once again expected in a broad band from inland WA through much of the NT and into northern SA this afternoon. Storms over the NT are expected to produce strong and gusty winds and heavy rainfall. There is also the chance of a few thunderstorms over the western and central interior over QLD. Stable air and warmer upper levels are expected to bring settled weather for the southeast. Cooler and stable air at the surface over the southwest of the nation keeping things storm free.

DATA


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

More details in the video where you can compare with GFS.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

No chnage in the overall placement and depth of moisture. More details on this later this morning.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Note the deeper moisture over the north, exceeding 60mm available! The values coming up to 50mm at times through the southeast states which is very moist air.

12z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details in the video - your number will vary, but we are starting to get better agreement on two areas of concentrated thundery weather. Over WA and the eastern states.

12z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details in the video. Your number will vary.

12z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

That wet signal is unchanged for the nation off this particular model through mid month.

More details coming up later this morning with a detailed look at the medium term, heading into harvest proper for many and a look at the Climate Drivers as well.

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