MORNING WEATHER WRAP - STORM OUTBREAK COMMENCES FOR SA, WET OVER THE TROPICS AND EAST COAST.

The weather turning a little drier through the eastern inland of QLD, NSW and VIC with a humid and mostly stable northeast to easterly flow near a ridge. The flow though allowing for showery periods to stack up along the east coast with moderate to now heavy accumulations expected for NSW and QLD.


Over SA and the NT, we are staring down a fairly nasty weather event which could cause major flooding and major disruption for Outback communities and also see part of the Stuart Highway cut in places. This is a significant issue for logistics and freight as well as pastoralists through the region. The persistent weather pattern supportive of days and days of stormy heavy weather through the region.


For northern parts of the nation, the moisture is set to deepen along with the monsoonal trough offshore. A tropical low embedded in the trough may enhance rainfall opportunities for northern Australia leading to flooding returning as a risk for the Top End and Kimberly.


The monsoon flow looks to stay with us for the remainder of the month into February.


Lets take a look at the forecast

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall spread remains volatile and very heavy across many parts of the nation. Deep troughs lifting moisture across inland areas of the nation coupled with the stagnant pressure pattern will mean widespread rainfall over the same areas for days at a time. SA will see that from today with extensive rain and thunderstorms through the weekend into next week over Central and Northern areas. Will it make it further east? That depends on whether the trough gets a kick along to the east, so some areas may go dry in the east. For the north of the nation, evidence the monsoon is coming back with heavy rainfall leading to flooding a risk for the northern tropics. Out east, persistent onshore winds may lead to some areas recording 100-200mm of rainfall and some flooding during the next 7-14 days along parts of the NSW and QLD coasts. But areas such as the western interior of WA, eastern inland of NSW and VIC may stay drier, near ridging. But all of this can change with a shuffle of the pressure pattern.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the central interior and through to the eastern inland in a moist and unstable airmass. Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding in the Central NT and through western QLD and eastern WA. Thunderstorms may also develop along a new trough sharpening through central SA through to the Agricultural areas, with gusty winds and moderate rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue overnight for SA into Thursday with severe weather possible, all modes of severe weather also possible, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the big concern. Thunderstorms over the tropics may see gusty winds develop inland of the coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Dangerous thunderstorms will be ongoing over inland SA and may stretch into the NT with heavy rainfall leading to life threatening flash flooding and riverine flooding. Communities may be cut off and infrastructure could be damaged by this rainfall. There may also be damaging winds and large hail risk through the region as well. Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms over the northern tropics may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds may develop with a tropical low approaching parts of the northern coast of Australia, location to be determined.

Tropical Depression Watch - January 22nd -27th 2022

Tropical depression may form as early as Thursday up over northern parts of the Arafura Sea and track southwards. The models are all over the shop with where to place it still so keep watching the forecasts closely as this will evolve rapidly in the coming days.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk - January 21st-28th 2022

A deep trough over the central parts of SA is expected to form during Friday and across the weekend, deepening further, pulling in high levels of moisture with the risk of severe thunderstorms over a number of days. Storms will carry the risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. Hail is a moderate risk. This could be a significant weather event leading to life threatening conditions. Flooding over the inland could exceed a 1/50 year event.

DATA - Refer to video for more information where I look at GFS.


Euro 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

A few wiggles in the forecast this morning from last night, more moisture is looking to come down into SA than yesterday leading to heavier rainfall now across the northeast and central areas, not just the northwest now, and is shifting the trough a little further east, so parts of the central and eastern Agricultural areas may get a few decent storms. The showers and storms looks to extend further east next week into VIC and NSW. This is thanks to the high in the Tasman not being as strong and stationary, this will mean less rainfall for the east coast of NSW and QLD. I will adjust forecast rainfall down if this trend continues for the east coast. The monsoon up north looks to remain in place from the weekend right through next week, with the modelling poor on potential tropical lows through the region. The wet weather then extends south through the interior once again next week with additional flood risks. The west of the nation is looking drier still, but moisture is continuing to creep in from the east and north for the SWLD.

Euro 12Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Significant and deep moisture covers a lot of the nation leading to record rainfall chances over the outback of the NT and SA. Some areas could see a year’s worth of rainfall. The weather over the interior is comparable to a 1/50 year event, more representative to the mid 70s across the nation in terms of analogues. The moisture will move across the southeast and east of the nation with troughs helping to lift all of that moisture into showers and thunderstorms. More moisture will sweep the nation through the medium term via the monsoon and the easterly wind dominance with high pressure sitting well to the south of the continent. That will place WA in the drier slot for now, but even there, the moisture is continuing to increase over time.

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

CMC 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more information

GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More coming up today on the flood risks for the NT, SA including the severe weather threat across the nation's inland. Also looking at the tropics as well and the enhanced rainfall and the potential for heavy rainfall for the east coast of NSW and QLD. There is a lot on the board today.