MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS UNDERWAY OUT EAST - MORE RAIN OUT WEST FRIDAY.

The weather is noisy over parts of the east this morning, with scattered storms and areas of slow moving rainfall, mainly through NSW this morning, moving south through parts of VIC and developing over southern and central QLD this afternoon.


We have got pockets of rainfall throughout QLD, NSW and VIC which may suppress some of the thunderstorm activity this morning, as will cloud cover, but in areas that are in clearer air on and west of the divide, especially in NSW and QLD, can expected severe thunderstorms this afternoon.


For SA, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing for the Ag areas with a low pressure system moving by and a few showers and thunderstorms developing for WA with a weak trough passing through.


Lets take a look at the latest details what is happening today.

Rainfall next 10 days

Not much change to the overall forecast but as mentioned multiple times, if you are living through SA, VIC, NSW and QLD, the rainfall distribution will be uneven, as what has been experienced overnight. That will continue for the coming few days with thunderstorms in the mix. The showery weather will then redevelop for the southwest of WA Friday with a strong cold front to bring moderate to heavy falls as that slams the SWLD. That system will weaken as it passes east and comes into SA and VIC. Another system likely to run across the SWLD next week again expected to spread rain and storms through the southern coastline this time next week. Over the north, the tropics turning more active across most models with that moisture likely to be drawn south with light falls expected through the outback. Next week the forecast confidence is not especially high.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to be scattered to numerous over the southeast and eastern inland with the moderate to high chance of severe weather this afternoon and this evening. Storms will be able to produce all modes of severe weather today especially on and west of the divide in NSW and northern VIC. Southern QLD could see a nasty batch of storms form over the Warrego that will sweep east into the Darling Downs later today. Over SA, the chance a few thunderstorms this afternoon as a low pressure system moves over the SE districts. Out west, thunderstorms are possible along a weakening trough but no severe weather expected. Over the north, isolated thunderstorms associated with the seabreeze front moving inland and over the Tiwi Islands (Hector) this afternoon.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday.

The severe weather risk continues for Thursday. More on this later this morning, but it has the chance of eclipsing the coverage on Wednesday afternoon with a higher risk of severe weather being observed throughout the eastern states. Storms clear the southwest of WA and storms develop once again over the northern tropics.

Riverine Flood Risk

The rainfall is still expected to be heavy enough to saturate catchments in the green zones to produce minor flooding in the coming days. There are flood watches for VIC at the moment and as with weather, it does not observe borders and flood risks are equally as high over NSW today. I may pull back the flood risks for southern VIC later today, just want to see how the convection evolves today.

DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing for the next 3 days with areas of rain as well with moderate falls. Just wet weather with increased risk of flooding. The west remains wet and stormy with two troughs in the coming days. The north is looking humid with a few showers and storms over the northern Top End most days this week coming. Remain weather aware across areas over the east. I will have more details on next week's weather later this morning.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies running high hence the significant coverage of rainfall and storms this morning throughout the south and east with warmer overnights and a humid feel to the air. This lingers until the weekend. Another burst of moisture coming through the southwest of the nation with storms forecast and soupy weather over the north with PW values increasing to above average, leading to early build up. The moisture recycles next week through the interior with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over interior parts and this could sweep into the east or southeast, but more on that later this morning.

Euro 12z - Rainfall - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from yesterday, there is follow up potential next week which you find out more about in the video and later this morning.

GFS 12z - Rainfall - Next 10 days

Unchanged in the short term, more details in the video coverage this morning.


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