MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SHOWERS EASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, COLD WEATHER FOR THE EAST - WARM IN THE WEST

The weather is slowly easing over the southeast with another shot of cold dry air surging north today with milder temperatures over the eastern inland.


For SA, the weather is milder today after a cold weekend. Plenty of sunshine away from the coast. The weather inland warming up ever so slightly.


Into WA, that warmer air from the weekend is heading inland today, a westerly change moving in along the west coast shifting east through the day. The north very hot and dry.


The southeast will see showers easing and a cold southwester today. It has been a very cold period for the southeast with conditions taking a few more days until seasonal weather resumes.


The drier spell is looking to come to an end this weekend with more rainfall developing from the west with a pair of pressure troughs but as outlined last night, that each model is suggesting a very different scenario which makes forecasting specifics right now, quite a challenge.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The dry start to this week for much of the nation will be with us to around Thursday when we see moisture begin to fold in from the west, north and east of the nation with all of that warm moist air eventually spilling south by the weekend. Troughs of low pressure are expected to lift this into areas of showers and thunderstorms over inland WA which will pass into SA and then into NSW and VIC with one trough this weekend. Another trough hangs back over interior parts of WA and SA and captures more moisture which then comes down with follow up rainfall for WA, SA and the eastern states next week. The tropics likely to turn more active, plus we must keep an eye on the tropical waves now circulating north of the nation this weekend and next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

A cool stable airmass limiting thunderstorm activity across the nation today. Higher moisture levels over the northern parts of Cape York delivering a few isolated thunderstorms and inland areas of WA near a developing trough may see high based thunderstorms.

Frost Risk Tuesday Morning.

Frost is likely for Tuesday morning over SE NSW and the ACT where temperatures could get down as low as -2C for some areas. Heavy frost is possible in this region, but unlikely to be severe.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The surface pressure pattern paints the picture of Spring 2021. The moisture rotating around the nation, being fed in from the Indian Ocean and northern tropics and into deeper troughs leading to areas of rain and thunderstorms for southern and eastern Australia. And again the conveyor belt is up and running once again from later this week. The deeper troughs over WA will pass through the south and east and lift copious moisture from the Indian Ocean but also run into deeper moisture over the southeast and east, leading to widespread rain and thunderstorms. We have two systems on the board between now and mid next week that could drop a month's worth of rain....each. This is not great for the flood zones and could lead to further flooding over parts of SA, VIC and NSW at this time. QLD you may be a little too far north for the first system but the second system may run over the region with heavy rain and storms next week. The tropics quiet for now but your activity comes back later this week after a hot dry few days, may be some near record temperatures this week. The west will see milder weather, not too cold but the main wet weather be born over the inland of WA but travels on east to hose down the east, leaving much of the state dry and stable.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The PW anomalies again show the potential for heavier rainfall returning to the forecasts for southern and eastern Australia as moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean yet again feeds troughs and low pressure to support more above average rainfall. Moisture via easterly winds which is running over those above average SSTs will support rainfall increasing for QLD and that will too, feed into NSW and the NT over the course of this period. So while we are cold, dry and stable for the first half of this week, the pattern shifts dramatically and by the weekend we may be dealing with further heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity for large parts of the south and east.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The drier air that has been sitting over the nation and will continue to do so through Wednesday is expected to be overrun by moisture streaming in from the west, north and east by week's end. There are areas of low pressure forming through WA and another trough over QLD that will start to lift the deeper moisture into areas of rain and storms. But the synoptic pattern again supports the moisture building over the northern and central parts of the nation. Without a large scale cold front to sweep out the moisture, it is anticipated to build and linger right through until early December at this stage keeping rainfall chances high and heavier when it falls.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video

I will have a closer look at the severe weather potential coming up this weekend a little later on this morning and wrap up November weather as well in the medium term outlook.

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