MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SHOWERS AND STORMS BREAK OUT IN MULTIPLE STATES - THEN WET SUNDAY.

It is an active period of low pressure across the nation over the course of the next 10-14 days with the most impacted areas being the further north and east you travel.


The weather today ahead of the showers and storms, pleasant, it is a ripper start to Saturday but it will turn.


As advised the rainfall totals over the nation bounce from run to run, with many areas seeing the rain come and go. It will continue for the next day or so.


PATTERN

Two systems on the board in the short term, we have a good idea that the system emerging out of the interior will move towards the east today, finding the better moisture and the showers and thunderstorms that flare will indicate where the trough is. This system is still being poorly modelled so more details on the weather system later on today for you in QLD, NSW, VIC and SA.


Another system is expected to pass through the SWLD during Monday and that weather is expected to spread to the south of the nation mid to late this week, its likely to spawn more showers and thunderstorms for SA, VIC and NSW, more frequent the further east you go. Out west get ready for more cold weather, not so much in the way of rainfall, but the cool season will continue. Drier weather to persist for the west under high pressure from Tuesday for quite a while.


Beyond then, another few troughs will be increasing rain and thunderstorms through the south and east in particular. The tropics also turning more active helping to invigorate the moisture profile over northern and eastern states.


FORECAST


Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall forecasts remain low confidence for the east and southeast, there will be rainfall, but who gets what is very tricky to pin down. The better rainfall does appear to be from Central Australia through southern QLD into northeast NSW with this first system. The second system brings light falls to the SWLD and will rush across the southern parts of the nation, and run into the moisture bringing up the chance of showers and storms from mid to late week. That precipitation scattered and uneven in distribution with storms involved. Beyond this period, there is more rainfall for the south and east of the nation as outlined last night in the model wrap. The tropics will likely see an increase in the build up showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Forecast - QLD - Valid Until Sunday 9am.

Thunderstorms are expected to break out over the western and southwestern areas of QLD later in the day if not at night, with the main activity expected over SA and the NT. The activity spreading east to be over much of the southwest and west by nightfall. This activity spreads east through much of the state during Sunday.

Damaging Winds Risk Forecast Saturday

Damaging winds in excess of 100km/h possible with thunderstorms over the northeast during the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm Forecast - NSW/VIC - Valid Until Sunday 12am

A pressure trough moving into western NSW coupled with a deeper moisture supply may see afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop over parts of the southern and central inland, extending up along the QLD border. Storms may be gusty at times with moderate falls and while there is the risk of large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, I am determining the risks low at this time.

Thunderstorm Forecast - SA - Valid Sunday 12am

Thunderstorms are expected to develop from early in the day over the northern areas, mainly elevated with light and patchy rainfall initially. During the afternoon deeper convection is expected to form over the Flinders and Northeast Pastoral Districts which could generate gusty winds and small hail. Some moderate to heavy rainfall is possible from these storms. Raised dust is also possible.

Damaging Winds Risk Forecast Saturday

Damaging winds in excess of 100km/h possible with thunderstorms over the northeast during the afternoon and evening.

Hail Risk Forecast Saturday

Just a small area identified at elevation over the Flinders region. This is a low end threat for now and cloud cover and lack of surface based instability could snuff the risks. The higher risk sits back in NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast - NT/WA - Valid Saturday 9pm

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the north with some of the storms producing gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

DATA

GFS 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The multiple systems on the board look to favour eastern areas of the nation with moderate to heavy falls possible with the first system over the eastern parts of QLD and NSW and the second system through VIC and NSW. Some of the storms with the second system could pack a punch over VIC, NSW and QLD mid to late week. Then a deep low will track through the southeast bringing further rainfall into next weekend. Elsewhere, dry weather after the front in SWLD of WA with cooler than average conditions. SA sits on the edge of the rainfall, so patchy rainfall and seasonal conditions for now. Over the tropics, the active weather will continue over the Top End and spread south and creep west into the Kimberly. In the medium term, watching a trough over the NT sweeping into QLD with more showers and storms. Another low pressure system could spawn out of a trough over SA and move into NSW and VIC with further rain and storms. Another event over in WA with moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean. That system likely to bring the next chance of rainfall.

GFS 12Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

Lots of moisture to work with across the nation during the coming 10-14 days with low pressure likely to be in phase with the moisture plumes triggering the widespread rain and storms through northern and eastern Australia. Drier air sticks around over parts of SA and WA keeping rainfall chances lower.

GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

Euro 12Z Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Euro 12Z Control - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - LOW CHANCE

CMC 12Z Ensemble - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - HIGH CHANCE

More weather details to come this afternoon.



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