MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES FOR SA AND THE MONSOON MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTH.

The humidity across the nation is expected to remain very high away from the SWLD of WA and the eastern third of NSW. The air there dominated by high pressure and the dry air that is associated with these features. For now, the main weather to watch is over SA and the northern tropics where severe weather potential grows from today.


Overnight we have already seen significant rainfall in parts of SA with severe weather warnings issued for the elements we have spoken about for the past week. Follow the guidance from these warnings and I will continue to update the movement of these features. I will have more details on this today and through the weekend.


For northern Australia the flooding risks are increasing with rainfall frequency increasing and the intensity also increasing. Do not think for a moment that because it is sitting over northern Australia that this won't impact the weather further south and east because it will have a major impact on rainfall for the end of January and into February.


As mentioned here for the past few months, second half of January and a lot of February is when the rainfall should peak so we are moving into the wet period. No surprises here from me. Now it is a measure of can we get away with not too much impact to domestic and commercial property.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Heavy rainfall has already commenced through parts of SA, from the interior through to the West Coast and the western portions of the Eyre Peninsula. This is where you will find the heavy rainfall over the coming days. Exceptional rainfall leading to areas of flooding expected through SA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to extend further east through the weekend and into next week, more isolated as you get into VIC, NSW and QLD until mid next week. For the east coast of NSW and QLD, showers to continue with onshore winds. A very stagnant pattern means that many areas in the east will see patchy falls with weather more like what you would see in the Top End. Over the tropics, the monsoon trough is moving closer to the Australian Coast over the coming days, this will lead to increasing rainfall chances, with some areas expected to see several hundred mm through the next week. The west remains dry for now. The rainfall over the nation will begin to shift east by this time next week with the troughs moving around, the one over SA will move east and the trough over the north moving southwards through to the Base of the Top End.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will continue overnight for SA into Thursday with severe weather possible, all modes of severe weather also possible, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the big concern. Thunderstorms over the tropics may see gusty winds develop inland of the coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Dangerous thunderstorms will be ongoing over inland SA and may stretch into the NT with heavy rainfall leading to life threatening flash flooding and riverine flooding. Communities may be cut off and infrastructure could be damaged by this rainfall. There may also be damaging winds and large hail risk through the region as well. Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms over the northern tropics may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds may develop with a tropical low approaching parts of the northern coast of Australia, location to be determined.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms will continue to be of concern through the same region with significant risk of dangerous flash flooding and riverine flooding ongoing through interior parts of the nation from SA through to the southern NT. Monsoonal weather offers gusty storms with damaging winds. Even squally showers could be disruptive. There may be a few thundery showers over the VIC ranges during the afternoon and evening extending towards the ACT.

Tropical Depression Watch - January 22nd -29th 2022

Tropical depression may form as early as Thursday up over northern parts of the Arafura Sea and track southwards. The models are all over the shop with where to place it still so keep watching the forecasts closely as this will evolve rapidly in the coming days.

Rainfall Next 2 Weeks

Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flooding likely to develop for parts of the Kimberly, through the Top End and Cape York. Enhanced rainfall with tropical lows will dictate the heavier weather but overall, the rainfall will increase in intensity and frequency and the heat levels will be coming down.

DATA - Refer to video for the breakdown of the short and medium term and compare with GFS.


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern unchanged, we still have the severe weather potential for SA and the northern tropics in the coming days. The pressure pattern allowing for this to remain in place for a number of days which will cause significant flooding. The weather out east, humid becoming hotter and more like the northern tropics with only isolated showers and thunderstorms, but once the trough arrives later in the period, the coverage of thundery weather increases. The west, hot and dry in easterly winds, but a few cooler days are possible once the heat trough moves inland. But no rainfall expected for southwest areas of the nation.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

No change to the moisture content, the red shading over SA is air that is more likely to be found over Darwin at this time of year, so giving you context as to how much rainfall is going to come down in some areas over the next few days. Otherwise the southeast and southwest in drier air for a moment, but even there, the moisture values will gradually rise, especially in the east with rainfall chances coming up as we go through this period. The main weather action will be over the north and central parts of the country, but many areas that see lighter falls will be dealing with Darwin style heat!

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z GFS- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more information

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

The latest 6 week outlook due today plus a look at the severe weather for SA, NT and then what happens with the moisture over the east. More throughout the day.