MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOVES INTO NSW AND QLD FRI/SAT.

An active day of weather is already underway, with scattered showers and thunderstorms tracking over large parts of SA and into VIC this morning. These are mainly elevated and gusty, with strong winds aloft being dragged to the surface quite easily with these thunderstorms.


A low pressure system is quickly approaching SA and this is expected to deepen with that feature invigorating a trough which is sitting over western VIC and NSW. By this afternoon, that trough is expected to spark strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather.


Damaging winds are forecast to become more widespread later today into tonight and tomorrow morning for southern SA and into much of southern and mountain VIC. The strength of those winds in response to where the low pressure system tracks. Some destructive winds of 120-130km/h possible for mountain areas of Victoria overnight into Friday.


The wild weather will shift north and east tomorrow with a severe storm outbreak for northern NSW and into southeast QLD, which will persist into Saturday. All modes of severe weather possible for this region as well.


Elsewhere, a clearing trend expected for the west of the nation and temperatures will begin to improve. The tropics becoming active once again after reasonably good rainfall between Darwin and Katherine overnight. The moisture once again leading to increasing showers and thunderstorms for large parts of the inland.


We will take a look at the system that emerges out of that moisture next week as well.


A lot on the table - lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is still low confidence for the short term thanks to the path of the low pressure system passing through the southeast today. That low may track closer to the coast bringing a period of heavy rainfall, how far inland that goes, IF AT ALL, over southeast SA and southwest VIC, remains to be seen so watch those radar trends. Otherwise, the trough ahead of the low will spark rounds of showers and thunderstorms with uneven rainfall distribution throughout SA, VIC and NSW today. It will repeat that over northern NSW and southeast QLD on Friday and Saturday. During this period the west will dry out and stabalise while the tropics remain active with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms popping up and extending south through the weekend to the southern and NT and over eastern WA. That moisture will then spawn the next rain and storm event for the south and east mid to late next week, that system much slower in movement and will drag deeper moisture throughout the nation. The west should remain mostly dry. AGAIN - THE FORECAST RAINFALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Thunderstorms are currently in progress over scattered pockets of SA and western and central VIC this morning. The storm coverage is expected to increase later this morning and spread further east through NSW and VIC. The thunderstorms likely turning severe over western VIC and western NSW as well as northern and eastern SA with all modes of severe weather possible. One or two tornados cannot be ruled out over western parts of VIC and southeast SA. Isolated showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the viewing area ahead of the trough, the dynamics are not as impressive over QLD and eastern NSW, so just standard pop up storms and the tropics likely to spit out a few showers and storms this afternoon, increasing this evening over the Top End again.

Tornado Risk Forecast Thursday

Adequate wind shear, forcing and instability will allow for storms that form to be spun into motion, isolated supercells possibly producing a tornado or two throughout the region.

Damaging Winds Forecast SA - Related to the low pressure Thursday AM - Early Friday PM

High risk of damaging wind gusts, especially near and north of a low pressure system passing through the south of the state today. The low is expected to move southeast however, it could track close to the coast, so stay up to date with the warnings today from the BoM and I will update these forecasts mid morning.

Damaging Winds Forecast VIC - Related to the low pressure system

This may be amended later this morning dependent on the path of the low pressure system today and tonight so stay up to date. Areas over the coast should be the most impacted at this time and those above 500m over southern Victoria.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

We have a number of systems on the board, which all models see, but all models treat the systems differently in terms of scale, strength, timing and impact over the south and east of the nation. The takeaway over the coming period is that it will be likely turning more humid and unsettled from next week over the eastern two thirds of the nation with some chance of severe weather back by mid next week and it could impact SA, VIC, NSW and QLD. The deep tropical moisture intrusion is up to 4x greater than what we are seeing today so be prepared for the rainfall numbers to bounce around due to thunderstorms, but essentially a wetter and stormy period expected next week and I will have more on that throughout the weekend as we get closer. Otherwise the tropics, unsettled, humid with showers and thunderstorms. For SWLD WA, drying out finally after record October rainfall but you are staying cooler than normal for most of this period.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Having green and blue shadings anywhere over northern Australia during this time is significant, and should be watched closely as the impacts on the weather further south and east is very high. We are getting a taste of that this week with modest moisture sweeping south and east, and we already have active storm outbreaks and severe weather chances for large parts of the nation. The weather over north is expected to remain very soupy and this could provide a good chance of above average rainfall, which will eventually sweep through central and eastern parts of the nation during the coming 2 weeks. The west is drier under persistent ridging and being on the subsiding side of the heat trough passing the SWLD. Otherwise

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

As mentioned, the PW Values are sky high over northern parts of the nation for this time of year and it is sweeping south and southeast through the period which will mean the tropics are going to be visiting large areas of the nation through the early part of November. As mentioned, the door was open for showers and storms to round out October and to kick off November with the end of Spring and into early Summer expected to be very wet and active under the climate guide. We are now seeing that in the short and medium term forecasts and it is appearing to verify. The west of the nation sitting under ridging not only dropping rainfall chances for a while but the temperatures will remain below average under this set up too.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

There are two systems on the board, refer to video for more details for rainfall across the nation. If you are living out west, you have a chance to dry out this week.

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

I will have another update on the severe weather risks for SA and VIC soon, plus a look at the medium term and that deep moisture intrusion. Also will update the severe weather risks for NSW and QLD tomorrow and Saturday. Stay up to date on all the warnings today from the BoM and I will have extensive forward analysis for those through the east with the storm outbreak tomorrow and the potential next week for large parts of the nation.