MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER DOMINATES THE EAST TODAY. WET WEATHER OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY

Lets get straight into it today as we have a significant day of weather, severe storms and heavy rainfall dominating the east - but what about the rest of the nation?

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall has been heavy overnight in the east and another round of that type of rainfall is likely for areas a little further east through QLD and NSW today. Areas of rain with light to moderate falls for TAS and much of VIC will ease from the west during Friday. Thunderstorms over the southeast will bring the better falls. Rain developing back through SWLD of WA with moderate falls on Friday with that activity expected to move east this weekend, though light and gusty rainfall only for SA and then into VIC and southern NSW Sunday into early next week. For the north the weather turns increasingly humid with showers and thunderstorms about. A better chance of rainfall exists just outside of this period for central and eastern parts of the nation with storms and rain returning. The moisture from the tropics may begin to spark high based showers and storms over inland areas of the NT and QLD, hence the light rainfall placemark to represent this.

Thunderstorm Forecast

No change in the spread for thunderstorms across the nation today, the most severe weather expected through NSW and QLD as per yesterday, though the severe thunderstorms will be initiating closer to the GDR and may reach the coast.

Flash Flood Risk

We saw scattered flash flooding reports yesterday with many areas hitting 50mm in quick time. Similar weather is expected for the east today. The flash flood risk over the Otways has ceased. 100mm fell there overnight.

Large Hail Risk

7cm hail reported yesterday afternoon between Bourke and Eulo, the weather now moving into higher population centres which is of some concern over the coming 2 days. Be weather aware.

Damaging Winds Risk

Damaging winds of 90-100kmh reported yesterday with the squall line through the central west and northern inland as well as southern parts of QLD. The potential to pull down the jet stream aloft continues.

Tornado Risk

A weak isolated tornado is possible today, we saw a few EF0 tornados in western VIC and eastern SA yesterday.

Riverine Flood Risk

Flood warnings have started to be issued for some river systems over the southeast of NSW and northeast of VIC. More rainfall about may see other areas go into a minor flood from today.

DATA


Euro 12z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern is dynamic and capable of producing high end severe weather over parts of NSW and QLD this afternoon with severe thunderstorms. The weather is expected to turn drier from the west over the coming days as the low pressure begins to open up and move off so by the weekend the weather is back to settled with only a few showers. The weather over the southeast turns drier through the weekend and pleasant. Over in the west, a strong cold front is likely to pass through with a belt of strong winds and heavy rainfall developing as that system passes through. Some storms could be severe. The front then collapses as it heads east into the Bight, so only light rain and windy weather coming into SA by Saturday night and Sunday. The system then will bring further light areas of rain and gusty colder winds into southeast Australia next week. Noting the low pressure mid next week over SA through the east may bring better rainfall odds, but this is the first time the models have shown this so will watch if that is still there tonight. The north remains hot and sunny with high humidity the further north you go with the chance of pop up storms each afternoon.

Euro 12z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

No real change from overnight, the high PW anomalies still remain in place over the southeast and east of the nation with heavy precipitation and thunderstorms as a result. The weather will then turn more seasonal nationally with drier air coming back into the mix, though moisture will begin to recycle through northern Australia and be drawn southeast into the mid latitude westerly winds, lifting rainfall chances and the chance of thunderstorms over parts of southern and eastern Australia as troughs and fronts move through. Heavier moisture levels start to build at the end of the run leading into another rainfall event for the nation into th second week of October.

Euro 12z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

A lot of this to come down in the next 48hrs over in the east. Rainfall comes back through the west from tomorrow with heavy falls possible with thunderstorms. There will be scattered showers about the southern coast of SA and into the southeast states as the front weakens and moves over with patchy falls into next week, some of that may extend inland into NSW. Otherwise the weather over the eastern inland dries out fairly efficiently this weekend into next week under a ridge. Watching that moisture over northern Australia with some chance that may take a trip down the Stuart Highway and be drawn through to the southeast and east of the nation. We will wait and see.

GFS 12Z - Rainfall next 16 days

Check out the blog video for more details

Severe weather updates to continue this morning and medium term forecast mid morning and a look at the La Nina chances by lunchtime if the severe weather is not active this morning.