MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES OUT EAST BUT THE WEATHER IS DRYING OUT THIS WEEKEND

Finally, the nation as a whole is seeing a reduction in rainfall, an increase in day time temperatures and drier air, all leading to more Summer like conditions for much of us next week.


The weather in the short term however, remains problematic for the southeast of VIC and through to southeast NSW and the ACT with heavy rainfall and flood risks developing this morning through to Saturday.


Severe thunderstorms also causing problems for parts of eastern QLD and through eastern NSW, some rough weather possible along a trough that is set to deepen and pass through slowly in the coming 48hrs.


For the west, a refreshing southwest to westerly change is set to move through from later tomorrow and much milder conditions are expected this weekend while the heat takes a journey to the east.


That means for SA and into western NSW and VIC, temperatures are set to rise and a much different week is on the way from the weekend, with dry air, very hot weather over inland areas (coastal areas may be spared) and a period to dry out nation wide.


The tropics, routine weather continues but even there the thundery weather may thin out a touch into early next week, so high heat may redevelop.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A very wet few days for the southeast of NSW is unfolding, the storms over the east will last another 2 days before that weather clears off. Showers over VIC today will contract east tomorrow and then clear this weekend. Then we have a fairly settled weekend with the rainfall mainly over the tropical north, but even there, the rainfall are expected to thin out for a period into early next week. The weather fairly dry next week but from about Thursday or Friday, a trough passing through from SA into the east will link up with moisture and provide the next batch of more widespread rainfall for the eastern states, isolated falls for central areas of the nation and an increase in the afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for the north. Also watching a tropical disturbance over the Arafura Sea which may develop further later next week and could enhance rainfall chances into the medium term outside of this period for northern and northwest Australia.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms have the very high chance of turning severe during the afternoon and evening over northern and eastern areas of the nation as we watch a broad upper low and trough move through from VIC into NSW. The high moisture content ahead of the trough is expected to be where you find the severe weather risks with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and other modes of severe weather including large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall over the north with large clusters of thunderstorms will also bring the risk of flash flooding. A trough in WA may bring a few non severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon. Thunderstorms over the southeast may bring flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Severe thunderstorms continues to be a significant risk during Friday as a the trough over inland areas of NSW and QLD finally moves to the east and clears offshore. All modes of severe weather possible ahead of the dry line. Thunderstorms over the southern parts of NSW have the chance of producing heavy rainfall and small hail. Thunderstorms over the northern Top End will carry the risk of gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A dry and stable airmass in the wake of the low pressure over the southeast and south will work north and clear the thundery weather back to the north and far east. A new trough over the west will bring scattered afternoon storms, some of those could be gusty, and that gusty storm activity extends back to the northern Top End.

DATA - You can catch the GFS in the video at the top of the page.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Severe weather continues for the east today and heatwave conditions ease for the west.

The weather over the nation is tending more Summer like with a shift to drier air and stable air from the weekend and into next week with high dry heat over interior portions of the nation. The heat will visit the coast occasionally with troughs passing through the south drawing in that heat towards the southeast while heatwave conditions can be expected for inland areas until this time next week. The weather grdually gets wetter and more humid in the east as an easterly flow returns, this will likely kick off from about the 18/19th of December and right through to the end of the month I suspect.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The dry air is nearly here for eastern areas with a couple more days of humid and stormy weather before Summer dry heat sweeps in. That will reduce the rainfall chances for about 3-4 days for many areas. The humidity also sweeps north towards the northern Top End seeing a reduction in rainfall for the tropics. The moisture over the tropics does increase again with tropical lows developing. Where those lows go, particularly the one north of the NT, will determine rainfall outcomes for much of the nation as we go into Christmas. You will see wild fluctuations in the rainfall and temperature forecasts as a result.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details can be found in the video and note the tropical weather in this update and I will talk about more about that not only for the northern areas, but the impacts of this feature on the rainfall spread and humidity values as we go towards Christmas.

More details to come throughout the day.


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