MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST - HOT IN THE WEST - DRY SOUTH.

The weather relatively unchanged nationally today with severe weather occurring in multiple states over the east and throughout the interior as well where storms flare. It has been a rough 24hrs for some locations with heavy summer rainfall, a few records may have been broken as well.


The severe thunderstorm threat continues for today in the same zones, with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and large hail with damaging winds also a chance too. The storm risk will slowly contract out of VIC through the evening.


Ex-tropical cyclone Seth is anticipated to move over the coast this morning bringing a burst of heavy rain and strong winds with that moisture to then be drawn inland making for a soupy and unsettled weekend and next week over much of the south of QLD and into NSW as the trough stalls out again.


The tropics, still looking to become more active, but as mentioned it will take a number of days before we get good guidance on where or if a tropical low does indeed form over the northern parts of the nation.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

After pockets of the southeast picked up another 100-200mm of rainfall overnight, heavy rainfall is expected once again for the southeast and now eastern inland with storms moving further north and east from today over VIC and NSW. The trough responsible, becoming stagnant again by the end of Saturday. That will set the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms for the weekend through next week over much of inland QLD and NSW with heavy falls associated with thunderstorms. For the tropical north, showers and thunderstorms continuing, though they may thin out a little this weekend. For the west and south, the dry spell continues with high pressure close by, though as we go through this period, the moisture creep from the north and east will begin and the showers and thunderstorms will be introduced into parts of northern and eastern SA and through central WA back towards the southern interior. There is the chance of further severe weather over the southeast and east next week with a middle level trough combining with the onshore easterly winds and high moisture content in the atmosphere.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms continue for the same areas into Friday with severe weather continuing over the east and southeast with the trough stationary. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds are the main issues. The highest risk once again over inland areas of NSW and VIC. The storm coverage over the north remaining unchanged with a deep trough developing over the northern states. The trough will snake back into WA with a chance of gusty storms but mainly light rainfall totals for now through to the Pilbara and Gascoyne.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms will slowly contract out of the southeast and move into Central NSW and points north and east near to the east of a trough that will once again pull up stumps somewhere over northern NSW Sunday. The storm focus continues with routine expectations over northern Australia for a monsoonal break period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms will likely regenerate along the same trough over the eastern inland and snake into another heat trough and low over the Central interior where strong to severe storms are possible. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main concerns still with high levels of atmospheric moisture. Over the tropics, the thunderstorm coverage still thinner than normal but where they form, could pack a punch. Storms through interior parts of WA near a heat trough advancing east, could be gusty with moderate falls.

Tropical Depression Forecast - Next Fortnight.

This product will be updated today.

DATA - Refer to the video for more guidance on the data sets below


Euro 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Slack pressure pattern means that the weather over the continent remains fairly unchanged for the coming 2-3 days, though the clearance of severe weather will begin out of the southeast with the upper trough weakening. Otherwise the surface troughs over the north and east of the nation will continue through the weekend and next week with showers and storms continuing in the same zones. The weather over the south and west, dry and warm to hot, tending very hot for the west with a dry airmass continuing. So rinse and repeat weather there. The tropics is the wild card for the sequence, will we see a tropical low over the northeast, north or northwest of the nation? The Euro says yes to it being over the northeast and north, where some other models have it over the northwest. The monsoon will likely respond to this feature and if it does follow the Euro, then it will be dragging in a wetter northwest flow for northern Australia and this would lead to the next wet phase across the country. The tropical low determines where that goes.

Euro 12Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture content remains very high over the east and southeast through much of this period and across the northern parts of the nation where heavy rainfall is possible with troughs in the region. You can see the persistent ridging keeping the southwest and south with drier weather continuing and clearer skies. The tropics turn interesting over the weekend, if the Euro is right, a low pressure system is expected to develop over the Coral Sea and move west across Cape York and this process will see a large amount of moisture coming through the north of the continent, setting up a very wet spell for the tropics, but also points south and east of this feature. The deeper moisture profile will then once again begin to move south through QLD and the NT into NSW from this time next week which will need watching for flood potential. The GFS does not have a tropical low and therefore rainfall is a lot less extensive and heavy over northern Australia.

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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CMC 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

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GFS 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A refresh on the 6 week outlook coming up this morning plus another look at the tropical set of data coming out and another take on the next wave of severe weather set to impact the Ag areas of the east next week.




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