MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SETTLED WEATHER FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS - LATEST PEEK AT THE RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
It is a settled cold start for the southeast and eastern inland away from the coast, frost has been reported from many areas of NSW and southern parts of QLD this morning, the moisture overnight in the lower levels saving much of VIC and SA from frost at this time which is good news.
The weather warms up through the central and eastern inland today with plenty of sunshine, the west turns warm to hot and the heat continues for the north after record temperatures across the tropics.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall looks lean until the weekend, no changes in that guidance from last night. Apart from a weak front that sweeps through the southeast states on Friday, the majority of the nation is dry for a week. The showers return for the east coast as easterly winds return and a trough forms through inland QLD and NSW as mentioned. The southwest also likely to pick up on rainfall from as early as late Saturday into Sunday with a series of troughs passing through. One of those troughs then comes through SA and into the eastern states with showers increasing from this time next week for SA, NSW and VIC.
Frost Forecast Thursday
Thankfully the frost was not as widespread overnight, low cloud with a parcel of low level moisture rotating under the high. That will likely not be there on Thursday morning so the frost risk continues for the southeast and east as the high moves through during Thursday. The air thankfully won't be as cold but frost could be heavy over the eastern and southeastern inland. I will adjust this forecast this afternoon and areas through SA and western VIC and NSW may be removed from the risk so come back and have a look.
Euro 12z Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 10 days
The pattern, still benign for the majority of the week under high pressure as forewarned. The pattern is still expected to shift this weekend for the east coast, showers returning, how numerous and widespread is to be determined, it is a split camp across the models, but the theme remains the same with showers returning back to the coast and inland from Sunday through early next week. Out west, a trough deepening on Saturday and into Sunday will introduce a few showers and thunderstorms with follow up troughs also keeping the wet weather going. This time next week, it is still anticipated the troughs in the west and the east will converge and bring widespread rain and storms., again coverage to be determined with all models showing rainfall chances increasing for the last week of September, but disagree on who gets what. Normal when you are a week out, we have to wait until later Sunday for better clarity if you are in the southern and southeast states.
Euro 12z Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days
The moisture is limited, PW values are low, leading to the clear skies and cold starts away from the coastal areas. That dry air likely to be drawn further west and north through the nation today, so very hot weather to continue for the NT and WA under this airmass. The moisture returns for QLD and southwest WA with troughs and onshore winds, but with moisture being drawn in from the Indian Ocean, the coverage of rainfall will be more widespread in WA next week and that should progress east as you can see below and in the video with GFS. The moisture continues to build beyond this into the medium term leading to a wet start to October.
Euro 12z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Rainfall looks lean compared to the GFS and that is always the case, in the convective set ups (showers and thunderstorms) GFS frequently performs better in rainfall distribution, not always, but frequently. So even though the Euro (which populates all your phone apps with the same details no matter which one you subscribe to), is showing nothing, the devil is based in the ensemble data. I will have more on that coming up mid morning.
More on the GFS in the video
I will have a look at the medium term as always coming up mid morning but also a detailed look at the ENSO by lunchtime to take you through the impacts coming up under a cool neutral or weak La Nina