MORNING WEATHER WRAP - SETTLED TODAY BUT THE WEATHER TURNS FROM TOMORROW OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

The remainder of the nation likely to get away with an OK Saturday across eastern and western areas of the nation. So make the most of it over in the east as we move into another wet spell across the nations southeast and east.


A cold front is expected to sweep through the SWLD bringing another colder shift for the region, with well below average temperatures and showery weather Monday but then drying out and cool.


The tropics are turning much more active as we go through the outlook period, the seasonal shift has really progressed this week and is likely to continue ahead of model expectations, you will find the models are playing catch up with this shift (models over the tropics work off a different set of parameters generally).


But really the system of great note in the short term is the weekend event that lingers into next week and then the storm outbreak mid to late next week which could pack a punch.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall has largely remained unchanged from last night. The rain more extensive through the NT, southern and western QLD and northern NSW with the first event before that sweeps out early next week. The falls over the southeast likely patchy and less than 10mm overall. The strong cold front over the SWLD may produce 5-20mm for the region, but falls less than 5mm over the inland areas of the southwest. That system will surge east and bring about a low pressure system, which will fire off a trough and kick off rain and storms over the southeast states mid to late week with better rainfall prospects for some areas that miss out this weekend. The tropics are expected to turn more active as we roll through this period, the seasonal shift continues for the NT and northern WA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

The chance of thunderstorms over the north of the NT and descending south down the Stuart Highway as the inland trough starts to develop lifting the deep moisture in place. Some storms could be gusty over the Barkly.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms through Central Australia will begin to drift south and east with isolated heavy falls leading to flash flooding and some damaging winds.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Not quite convinced of thunderstorms spreading through southeast Australia with this weekend feature, even though there are storms forecast, I suspect cloud cover will mitigate thunderstorm activity at this time, but will update later. More storms through the outback into QLD will be gusty at times and the chance of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding on the leading edge of a rain band slowly moving east.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A deep low pressure system and leading through of low pressure may produce scattered thunderstorms over the southeast of the nation with some storms possibly strong to severe with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain leading to flash flooding. This will be reviewed again during this morning. Scattered storms over the Top End and along the QLD coast could also be heavy.

DATA

Euro 12z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

We have two events on the board for the nation. The weekend event that is likely to pass through more efficiently now, absorbed in the westerly flow taking rain over central Australia with a few storms through QLD and northern NSW with a trough. A front to the south of the trough will drive patchy rainfall and cooler southwest to southerly change through the southeast states with lighter falls. Over the southwest the next event should start to take shape from Monday while lingering rain is ongoing over northern NSW and southern QLD. The strong cold front is still expected to pass over the SWLD of WA bringing showery cold winds through the region, which clears by Tuesday. As that system moves eastwards, a low is expected to form along the front. This system will help to clear the first system off the east coast Tuesday. By mid next week there is a high chance of showers and storms developing through parts of eastern SA, western VIC and NSW as the leading trough hits the moisture left over by the first system. The storms then slowly move east late next week through NSW and into QLD. Up north the tropics are turning active with a good chance of above average rainfall for the period across the NT. The west will turn dry from Tuesday and beyond with high pressure over the region.

Euro 12z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Note the moisture moving southeast and east from the NT and northern SA with the rainfall and cloud coverage increasing during Sunday into early next week for the eastern inland. That blue shading indicates an atmosphere capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall especially in the presence of the trough and low pressure. Over in the west, modest moisture passing through with a frontal system will bring cloud and showers. That moisture will have limited impact on SA and the NT Tuesday. The moisture from the first system hangs back over VIC and NSW during Tuesday and sits waiting for the system from WA to run into it and that is where we see more showers and storms develop. Over the north we have deep moisture building and the daily storms continue, but the moisture is again travelling south and southwest through the nation into the mid latitude westerly winds which will feed further rainfall events into mid month.

Euro 12z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Note the differences in the modelling across both systems below. More details can be found in the video.

GFS 12z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

CMC 12z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

I will have a climate update on the Harvest Outlook and a full run through of November later this morning plus a medium term forecast to look at the rainfall events and temperature fluctuations across the nation in the next period of contrasting weather.