It is fairly benign for a lot of us across the nation as the monsoon takes a break over northern Australia, the tropical low that brought the heavy rain with local flooding also moves east of QLD and the eastern inland of QLD and NSW dries out and warms up with a high pressure system passing through VIC.

The west will see a reduction in heat levels for the rest of the week, but not cooler weather, with the values over heavily populated areas of the southwest dropping from the high 30s and low 40s down to the low to mid 30s.

The weather does start to turn more unstable next week over northern and eastern areas of the nation, but the timing, scale and depth of the low pressure in relation to moisture remains to be seen. I think the model madness will continue for some time to come, so pay attention if you are living over the tropics and in the east.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

No change to the rainfall from overnight. The models are still quite divergent in the medium term relating to the moisture spread across the nation and the extent of that moisture reaching the southeast and south. This is normal for monsoonal break periods over the north of the nation. The impacts on the the south and east will not be known until we get into the latter part of the weekend and next week as to how the moisture from the north creeps south. So for now the rainfall forecast is low, despite some of the models suggesting heavy rainfall developing at the end of the run, the extent and coverage is yet to be determined. The overall trend for wetter as we go through January is a good one still with the MJO rotating back around through the northern tropics and the easterly winds becoming more unstable. We are in a break period from the widespread heavy rainfall though for a number of days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms thin out across the nation on Thursday with heights coming up and troughs reorganising. There are middle level troughs over the interior which will give way to elevated storms, but only a small chance that storms turn severe over the nation tomorrow. Rain and thunder over the northern tropics will ease later Thursday. Storms may be gusty over the NT and northern WA but the coverage is not especially high.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are anticipated to increase in coverage on Friday as a heat low deepens over parts of the NT and WA, with storms tending gusty during the afternoon and evening. The coverage a little more widespread over the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening with heavy falls in a couple of places. Elevated storms over the outback will continue, but most of the rainfall light if anything.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to continue over northern tropics during the afternoon and evening with some of the thunderstorms expected to be gusty at times as well with higher instability levels. Thunderstorms are also expected to extend down a trough and in advance of a wind change through SA and into VIC and western NSW, but storms are anticipated to be mostly elevated and dry.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Next Monday and Tuesday

An area to watch through the outback extending over the northern tropics, a fairly decent thunderstorm outbreak could result in damaging winds becoming a widespread event Monday and Tuesday - this could be quite a dynamic period of thunderstorm activity across the interior.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Next Thursday

A low end threat at the end of next week for the southeast inland. A sharpening area of low pressure connecting with moisture will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some may turn severe. Thunderstorms could cause heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as the main concern.

Tropical Waves - Next Week - December 29th 2021- January 5th 2022

Tropical low (08U) is moving through FNQ and is expected to pop off the FNQ coast with heavy rainfall clearing into the Coral Sea. The monsoon trough is expected to drift north of the mainland back over open water and next week a few waves of storms may begin to gather strength and organise into low pressure over the northwest and north of the nation. The models continue to move the low pressure around the northern areas of the nation which means that the confidence remains low for now.

Excessive Heat - Next Week - December 29th 2021 - January 5th 2022

Excessive heat is expected to be transported through to the eastern and central inland north and west of the divide with a large high moving east. The highest heat anticipated over outback areas. Coastal areas will feel 1-2 days of excessive heat but nothing out of this world over southern areas. The excessive heat (40C and above) will return to the west coast next week in WA. The heat values are within tolerance for Summer.

DATA - Watch the video for more information.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Not a whole lot of change in the short term with temperatures moderating in the west and increasing in the south and east. The high responsible is on the way through to the east this weekend, bringing a northwest flow and that hot air into the interior. The weather over northern Australia is expected to become more unstable as the monsoon trough moves north and a deepening heat trough over the interior forms a low, sparking rounds of showers and strong to severe storms from the weekend through next week. Some indications that the easterly winds will return to the east with a deepening trough to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for VIC, NSW and QLD. Some of those could be severe. It is too early to tell if this impacts SA and the overall confidence in the scale of the system is low. Finally, watching the potential for a tropical low to pop over northern Australia, with a higher chance being east of the NT at this time.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

No real change from last night, with troughs over the interior, while connected to modest moisture will be up against producing widespread rainfall thanks to high pressure nearby and the lower levels being dry for a while into the weekend and early next week. Fortunes change as the tropics turn more active, the easterly winds return and the trough over the east deepens further into a low pressure system producing widespread moderate to heavy falls with thunderstorm activity for the eastern inland of the nation. The west and far south should remain in the drier more stable air for the duration of the outlook

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

12Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video

12Z CFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

The monsoon will return and this model does not pick up on it very well at all, so the fact it is showing this is quite impressive. The rest of the nation will get wetter as we go through January and into February. Once again, the back half of Summer looks very soggy.

As per yesterday, thankful to the weather Gods keeping things nice and quiet so if there is anything that changes drastically in the 18Z run, will let you know.