The weather pattern is fairly stagnant with the wet weather is remaining up north and for pockets of eastern Australia as expected with onshore winds for the east and the monsoonal flow developing up north.

For the southeast, mild to warm and settled weather expected, that will be shared with SA but out west,, searing heat is expected to continue for a number of days through Christmas and into next week, no change on either signal there.

Two rain events to watch, one over the north with the tropical low, that is yet to be determined as to where it goes, though there has been an eastward shift in modelling, that still remains to be seen. The other is for the east coast of NSW, mainly north of Sydney up to Mackay, pockets in this zone and inland to the GDR could see 100-200mm over the coming week.

Dry weather for most elsewhere, with only very isolated showers and thunderstorms. A better idea on the coverage of rainfall will be available once the low up north intialises in real time. That holds the key to where the moisture and rainfall chances go.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

No change to the rainfall guidance, you can see the data sets underpinning forecasts at the moment below. From run to run, the models are changing drastically so the forecast guidance is very low which is to be expected at this time. For now the heaviest rainfall is expected through the northern Top End and over the Gulf Country of QLD extending southeast through the interior and then into Central QLD. Onshore winds will also drive showers and storms, some heavy along the QLD coast and extending south along the NSW coast to about Newcastle/Sydney. Heavy falls are possible in this zone. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers over the interior of the nation may lead to some moderate falls in a few places, many going dry. The southern coast, mainly fine and dry over the coming 10 days.

Rainfall Next 16 Days

Rainfall continues to build over northern Australia with a stronger signal that the monsoon trough snaps back north as the tropical low detaches over QLD. So rain and storms continuing in early January. The moisture over QLD extends into NSW with further showers and storms. Perhaps moisture from the monsoonal flow moving south through WA and along the northwest coast, finally bringing and end to heatwave conditions. Mostly dry conditions for a lot of VIC and SA, but all can change as the weather from up north spills southwards. So this forecast will change.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms back over the same locations once again on Thursday with the coverage shifting south and west through NSW and into the ACT with some storms turning severe. The trough over the east snakes back over the eastern and southern inland of QLD. The thunderstorm coverage is expected become more widespread over the NT and Kimberly with some storms gusty, especially over the southern and western NT into the north of the Kimberly.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms contract north into northern NSW and into southern QLD with a trough sharpening in response to high pressure ridging through southern Australia. This will allow for more moisture to surge into the southern end of the trough. Flash flooding a chance for the eastern inland of NSW and into southern QLD. The storms will again snake back over northern parts of the nation, storms may turn gusty again.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

A tropical low deepening to the north of the NT will see storms turn gusty and severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and possibly one or two brief tornados over the northern coast. The storms will develop further south over much of the NT, through QLD and into NSW and the ACT again. The storms over the eastern inland could be heavy at times with flash flooding the main risk

Tropical Depression Risk - Friday through Monday

Tropical depression risk is above 75% chance over the course of the weekend with a low emerging from the Arafura Sea and heading south into the NT, but location to be determined. Further tropical depressions are likely to form along the monsoonal trough as we roll into early January.

Tropical Cyclone Risk - Friday through Monday

A moderate risk of cyclone development with the low sitting in a favourable position for further development this weekend. Category 2 at best north of the NT before it encounters wind shear closer to the coast and the system likely to weaken on approach.

DATA - Refer to video for more where I run through GFS.

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern largely unchanged, we have to wait until the modelling on the tropical low becomes clearer which should be by tomorrow night. Then we can see how that system behaves over northern and eastern Australia. For now the west very hot and dry with easterly winds for a good chunk of this week. The weather over the southeast fairly quiet and settled with mild conditions. The eastern seaboard, showers increasing with heavy falls developing near troughs over NSW and parts of QLD. Over the north widespread heavy and squally rainfall developing with a tropical low making landfall over Christmas weekend and heading southeast, this will drag in the monsoonal flow and keep the wet weather going. This is a seasonal look for Summer, especially with La Nina involved.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

A very deep moisture supply sits over northern and eastern Australia with persistent easterly winds, a blocking ridge to the south and the monsoonal trough on the approach to the northern parts of the nation. All of this combining for a very humid and stormy period for northern and eastern Australia. By contrast the dry and settled weather for southern Australia should persist for most of this week, though moisture may break through the high pressure dome by the middle of next week introducing showers and storms to the southeast and south, but that remains to be seen. Dry out west though moisture is creeping south through this period as well.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Refer to video for more analysis

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Refer to video for more analysis

12Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Refer to video for more analysis

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Refer to video for more analysis

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Refer to video for more analysis

More details throughout the day.

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