MORNING WEATHER WRAP - RAIN SLOWLY MOVING EAST TODAY - NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS MID WEEK.

And there is a risk of severe thunderstorm activity during Wednesday over NSW and VIC, then again on Thursday for NSW and QLD. Some of these could pack quite the punch with all modes of severe weather possible. This could have some issues on crops that are waiting to be harvested.


Back near the low pressure system, showery weather, with moderate falls for SA will shift into VIC as the low moves east. Land gales may develop and could also pose a threat to vulnerable crops through Ag SA, over much of VIC and possibly southern NSW.


Today we have areas of rain and some surprise falls as expected over NSW this morning, some welcome falls for parts of QLD and the SEQ coast enjoying finally getting a decent drink. Over in the west, it is cold to start with a moderating southwest to westerly flow.


Lets take a look - Apologies it is 9 minutes long - I am trying to reduce the length of videos but it is getting tough with SO much on the board

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is leaving the east coast today with a deep trough and low pressure system lifting out. The weather also clearing over SWLD of WA with the westerly flow moderating and the airmass warming. slowly. Over the north the usual showers and thunderstorms are expected. The next system on the board comes in during Wednesday, with widespread showers and a few storms for SA but the main action storm wise will be over VIC and NSW. Heavy falls are possible with thunderstorms in these states. Moderate rainfall continues for SA with a gusty low nearby, so Ag areas should see reasonable falls. Over VIC and NSW, further rounds of showers and storms, some severe, delivering uneven amounts of rainfall but some areas could be clobbered with 40-50mm of rainfall while others only see 10mm. The same rule applies along the band of thunderstorms that form in QLD on Thursday. The wet weather then stays over the southeast during Friday and Saturday with gusty winds, heavy falls for TAS and moderate falls over southern VIC. The next system on the board comes in from the Indian Ocean and brings rain with moderate falls for WA early next week. The tropics, the usual afternoon storms, but most areas should see 20-40mm these next 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A pressure trough and low is heading east and the thunderstorm risk is clearing east this morning and should be resolved by this afternoon as the upper levels warm and the air stabalises. Storms possible over the northern tropics this afternoon and evening, mainly through the NT. The risk is easing through NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during Wednesday afternoon over the southeast with a trough sharpening thanks to a deepening low pressure system near Kangaroo Island. Sufficient dynamics aloft with favourable upper level wind profile will support scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding all a risk. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled over over VIC and southern NSW later in the day. The storms should weaken at night and form a rain band for eastern VIC and southeast NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms likely turning scattered and more widespread along a trough through Thursday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of a colder drier westerly change. Storms have the chance of producing damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, large or giant hail and a tornado or two, especially in the eastern parts of QLD and NSW with a tornado risk also over VIC and SE SA with low topped thunderstorms. The storms will move east and clear at night but persist over VIC and southern NSW. Tropics active with the usual noise in the afternoon.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week October 18-25 2021

A pattern flip will see the warmth from WA head east and bringing in some of the warmest weather of Spring so far for much of the southern and eastern states. The west likely to turn cooler again after the warmer weather of this weekend.

DATA


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is still focused on the system leaving the east today and the dominance of a low pressure system coming in during Wednesday and Thursday over SA. Watch the moisture being ingested into the system coming into eastern Australia ahead of the low in the coming updates as rainfall numbers are creeping up. Storms also locally severe so more updates on that. I will also have more information on the follow up system for WA later this morning, the low pressure impact on SA and VIC as well and a full severe storm update on the potential in the east this afternoon. Lots of weather on the board. Oh and we go from below average to well above average in terms of temperatures next week. The northern parts of the nation is sitting under the same pattern so what you see outside is what you will see for the coming week.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture largely unchanged in the short term, the next system coming into SA will tap into the left over moisture over the east and produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather over SA and VIC turning colder and the airmass drier with a southwest to southerly flow wrapping into the low bringing in cold air from the Southern Ocean. The weather over in the west warm and dry before the next large moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean which is expected to bring above average rainfall. The northern tropics humid and trending even more humid next week with an upper high suppressing rainfall for a period.

12z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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12z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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12z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

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Lots on today and I will be tapping furiously and producing videos to cover off as much as possible for you all as the impacts are trending MODERATE TO HIGH for those who have crops, with damaging winds over the southern coastal areas of SA and VIC and severe storms over the east and southeast as well, PLUS unseasonal rainfall is increasing in chance for SWLD!



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