A wet start to the day over the in east of NSW with a trailing cloud band all the way back to the southern NT bringing thunderstorms and showers as well. The milder air is filtering in behind the system for southeast Australia ahead of a cold blast that is due in later Sunday over VIC and SA and then the remainder of the eastern inland during early next week.

State Of Play for the Southeast.

Some OK rainfall has fallen over NSW once again, as expected the rain band breaking out with the better dynamics once again in phase over VIC and NSW. 10-20mm through the Southwest Slopes making that region the wettest in the country again.


It is all about the cold air surging north during the early part of this week which will see temperatures drop by as much as 15C in some locations through the eastern inland with farmers and graziers issues to be expected in this late season cold snap. The weather will turn drier again, with moisture being shunted out to the north and east of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies for this coming week - September 18-24 2021.

This chart to be updated again on Sunday.

The main issue with this system is the farming and grazier warning surrounding cold air which will impact stock and potentially produce widespread frost mid week.

For the west and north, things are drying out further as a high pressure system continues to move east to engulf the nation from mid next week leading to a very quiet period of weather.

Note the large scale high that is taking up residence, that will keep the drier air in place and lead to a fairly quiet week of weather post the cold blast Monday into Tuesday. The next system as mentioned all this week to bring rainfall and moisture back into the nation comes during the last week of the month.

Pressure pattern is reflective of a winter time set up to start the week, hence the drier air and lack of rainfall nation wide, coastal areas seeing the best of it. Things do shift towards the end of the period, again as alluded too, we have to wait for the last week of September it seems. I was thinking it should be starting some stage this week, but a sneaky follow up front looks to spoil the party so another week of drier air much of the inland until about the 24/25th of the month, then we see rainfall chances returning.

Next rainfall chances for the nation come at the end of the month for the west - otherwise the bulk of the rainfall is with this system passing through today over the east and the follow up cold front that races north early in the new week. It is a bone dry airmass otherwise.

GFS latest rainfall guide for the coming 10 days - note the moisture north of the NT and QLD seeping further south with the heavier precipitation contours getting closer, make sure you enjoy the drier air over northern Australia it is going to shift. The earlier the build up begins for the north, the more rainfall chances appear further south and east through Spring.

Rainfall next 10 days.

Really after today's system moves through the inland likely dry for the coming 8-10 days before we see moisture return via easterly winds over the eastern inland, through the tropics and then with an impulse of moisture coming via the Indian Ocean. Rainfall until then, coastal with moderate falls through those areas exposed to a southwesterly flow early in the week. Rainfall drawn in for SWLD of WA is for the end of the run as is rainfall over QLD.

I will have another broader update this afternoon looking at the medium term outlook as well. Have a great Saturday.