MORNING WEATHER WRAP - RAIN INCREASING FOR THE EAST, MORE RAIN BUILDING IN THE WEST MONDAY

The wet weather is spreading throughout the nation as multiple troughs and deeper moisture emerge, right on schedule to bring a wet end to a wet month for many locations.


The coverage of rainfall once again will be biased over the eastern parts of the nation this weekend with a deepening trough sparking areas of rain and thunderstorms. Some of those thunderstorms could be severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and renewed riverine flooding in NSW.


The storms will move into QLD Monday with some of those possibly severe with all modes of severe weather.


Another trough over WA will bring showers and thunderstorms during Sunday into Monday, especially over the central and southern interior. Some of those storms could be severe if a low pressure system deepens.


Over the tropics the weather is expected to be much more active as moisture deepens over the north with yet another trough building over the base of the Top End. This may spark some of the wettest weather of the build up so far.


The trough out of WA will combine with moisture from the NT and the left over moisture over the eastern inland with areas of rain and thunderstorms building over SA and VIC mid week and QLD, NSW and the ACT mid to late week with further heavy falls possible and severe weather.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The wet signal continues for the next week particularly over the north and east of the nation. The deepening trough this weekend over the east is producing a significant area of rain and thunderstorms but the coverage not as heavy as previous days modelling. The west turns unsettled with showers and thunderstorms developing later this weekend into next week with that system running through very moist air over central and eastern areas of the nation leading to further rain and thunderstorms spreading throughout. The heaviest falls will develop over NSW and QLD with this feature with patchier falls with showers and thunderstorms for VIC, SA and WA as well as the southern NT. The rainfall along the east coast may tend heavy with a coastal trough mid to late week. Severe thunderstorms are also likely to lead to heavy falls of 50mm+ in a sitting. The weather turns drier over the west under a ridge mid to late next week. That ridge will help to promote northeast winds across the nation, leading to an increase in tropical showers and thunderstorms, that moisture also surging south towards the end of the period. This forecast confidence is currently low for the east due to thunderstorms in the mix and the complex pressure pattern so there will be further adjustments.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms have been isolated overnight in a broad cloud band and continues to move east this morning. Storms will increase north of the cloud band this afternoon and tonight with gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible. Storms also carry the risk of large hail in northern NSW. Later tonight another area of thunderstorms may develop over central and northwest NSW and southwest QLD in association with a deepening low pressure system.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

A deepening low pressure system over northern NSW will spawn showers and thunderstorms early Sunday and these likely to tend severe during the morning. Some of the storms may drop excessive rainfall in quick time leading to high end flash flooding, large hail and damaging winds in the red and purple zones. There will be scattered thunderstorms in a broad zone from northwest to southeast around this region with heavy rainfall and gusty winds also possible. Out west a new trough a deepening low will spark showers and thunderstorms, with some of those storms turning severe with damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and large hail.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are likely to continue over the western interior from Sunday and increase again as the trough moves eastwards towards SA. Some of these may turn severe with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. The storm chance extends north up to the NT where thunderstorms may be gusty in the afternoon and evening. The east is where the most dangerous weather is likely to develop. Thunderstorms turning easily severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a very high chance with damaging winds also possible.

DATA

12Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

2-3 systems on the board nationally and I have more details in the video.

12Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture profile is noticeably elevated now with the thick cloud cover suppressing temperatures and also bringing widespread light rain at this stage today. Later today the moisture deepens further in the east and lingers through most of next week. Out west another impulse of moisture being fed into a trough will breed the next rainfall event mid to late week for central and eastern areas. And the moisture over the tropics is deepening as well with some of the highest values seen so far this wet season. The moisture sticks around for eastern and northern areas well into December leading to more rainfall.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details

Rainfall numbers are coming up along the east coast.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

12Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

More details to come throughout the day.

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