MORNING WEATHER WRAP - QUIET WEATHER WISE AHEAD OF OUTBACK RAINFALL MOVING EAST.

A weak front is passing through the southeast of the nation with a band of showers and a cooler westerly flow this afternoon and this evening. A pre frontal trough could spark from thunderstorm activity through the outback of SA and through the southern NT, this non severe activity is expected to pass into southwest QLD and western NSW this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise the weather is looking fairly settled.


The major interest is still over the weekend, and as expected the model madness continues, so lets take a look at the latest information.


I will have more on the major rainfall potential later this morning in greater detail, waiting on more of the data to filter through and have a look at the latest GFS data too. So come back at 11am. This will also impact the SWLD with the front passing through region, and how cold that system will be, as it could cause some grazier issues and more frosts for farmers.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Widespread rainfall again for much of the nations east and central areas with a new trough forming this weekend. That trough will link up with deeper moisture over the northern and eastern parts of the nation triggering widespread rain and thunderstorm. Some of the rain could be heavy over the southern NT, northern SA and into northern NSW and southern QLD. Exactly who gets what, it is too hard to the determine, forecast remaining very low confidence with diverging modelling, though there has been a shift overnight to place the better rainfall a little further north than yesterday. But until the low pressure system forms in real time, the modelling will poor. A higher confidence of rainfall for the NT with afternoon showers and thunderstorms and through the southwest and southeast with passing cold fronts. Today some areas could get 5mm over VIC and 25mm in western TAS.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Once again, the moderate chance of thunderstorm activity on the southward moving seabreeze front over northern areas of the Top End and also along the Tiwi Islands during the afternoon and evening, Hector the convector in full swing! Not a big boy but he is getting larger each week.

The chance of a thunderstorm on an upper trough passing through ahead of the front and colder weather during Wednesday afternoon. The storms should be around 20000ft off the ground and non severe, and likely to be just a few claps of thunder amongst a batch of showers. Gusty winds are possible but not like last frontal passage.

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern in the coming 2 days is set in stone across all models with a front passing through with a weaker upper trough triggering a few showers about the southeast and east. The weather over the nation then becomes very tricky to forecast. We still know we have that deep moisture profile to work with for Central Australia, and a low is likely to move into this region bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. The coverage of rainfall will be scattered to start with but tend more widespread for the eastern states. For SA and VIC, the best of it may skirt through to the north and east of the states during next week, however as outlined in the video, the frontal passage on Saturday/Sunday is the key to where the low pressure system ultimately travels and will determine when and where the high comes in to cradle the low and slow the rain event down over the east. Some models have this happening over VIC and TAS, some modelling has this happening over the Tasman Sea (as per the Euro above). For the remainder of the nation, the west is dry and milder before another front comes through next week with a colder shift with showers developing, again that system determined by what happens out east. The north is hot with the usual pop up storm over the Top End.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

There is no change from yesterday. I encourage you to check out the video explanation on the moisture distribution in relation to the weekend system and how that impacts next week and why we are seeing such volatility from run to run. The Euro passes the moisture through a lot more efficiently, where most of the models keep the moisture over the nation, so I am leaning away from this solution below. The moisture should remain in place.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall is low confidence. The rainfall bias is over central and eastern areas of the nation but this focus could shift north or south in coming days so stay tuned. YOUR NUMBER WILL CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN. Otherwise if you are living in the SWLD, light falls for the most part next week with that next front. The showers and storms, with random falls over 50mm expected over the next 10 days. And for the southeast light to moderate showers expected today with the front passing through.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more details on this and the above parameters.





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