MORNING WEATHER WRAP - OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAIN EASING IN THE EAST. SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE IN PLACES

The weather remains active and dynamic as we track one upper low over the eastern inland towards the coast and another upper low over the west moving east into SA. The weather is very unstable in both of these locations. Flash flooding and riverine flooding in the east continues this morning. In the west, severe storms with a hail and wind risk moves east.


In between all of that, SA and VIC are quite settled and the tropics are seasonal. The weather will likely shift from WA into SA and the southeast by mid week, posing a threat of additional flood risk on top of what is going on right at this time.


There is a lot going on so lets get straight into it.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall extensive and heavy overnight, some locations clearing 100mm in NSW once again with additional flooding. This will be repeated once again through NSW and QLD with a deep trough approaching mid week. That trough is sparking widespread rainfall over the Pilbara, Gascoyne through the Wheatbelt into the Goldfields and then Southern Interior. The rainfall above average for this time of year through this region. Another wave of rain will likely move through SA, but patchier totals forecast. This trough will be the feature that sparks the heavy falls for the eastern inland bringing that flood potential. Some areas by the end of this week could see record rainfall for November. The weather over the west dries out from mid week and SA and VIC from Friday. The weather over the north turning more active with a deeper moisture supply and thundery weather increasing.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected in eastern portions of Australia with some of those storms turning severe in QLD with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. Thunderstorms severe in pockets this morning over WA with some of the storms producing large hail and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall also a chance. Thunderstorms return to the tropical north of the NT and WA with damaging winds and heavy rainfall a risk in these areas today as well.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will progress into SA during Tuesday, but the air aloft is not as dynamic so at this stage the severe weather threat simmers down, however watching the formation of a low over the state during the late afternoon or evening which may spice up the storms into Wednesday. Thunderstorms over the NT and running down the west coast could produce damaging winds. Thunderstorms over parts of QLD could also turn severe with heavy rainfall the main concern with a near saturated airmass.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms becoming widespread over eastern SA through VIC and into NSW. Thunderstorms may turn severe with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. Thunderstorms over QLD will turn severe through the afternoon west of the divide with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to be widespread through the east and north with the risk of severe thunderstorms, producing heavy rainfall leading to dangerous flash flooding and damaging winds, mainly over NSW, the ACT and QLD. The tropics will see widespread showers and thunderstorms with some damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Additional Flood Risk Wednesday through Sunday

This chart will be updated this afternoon and likely to be extended into VIC and QLD with the guidance slowing the rainfall down and lingering falls in QLD could see heavy falls over 100mm continue into the weekend.

DATA


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

More details in the video, but I will mention that the gap between systems in the medium term is shortening and we are not seeing much chance of drying out now for NSW and QLD through the coming 10-16 days with persistent low pressure and rain/storm risks. The southeast should get a 2-3 day window of drier weather. The hot and dry weather in the nation will be found in WA where easterly winds downstream from the ridge will make it feel like summer time with little rainfall expected beyond today.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The deep moisture profile is yet to arrive across the east and southeast with the rainfall we have seen in recent days over NSW and QLD to extend south into VIC and the remainder of NSW and now eastern SA. The deep moisture surge through WA should contract east into the NT and SA conditions turning drier from tomorrow and throughout the week. The moisture will be flushed out of the southeast during the weekend however there are some signals that the moisture may not totally clear NSW and QLD with yet another system developing this time next week with the moisture being drawn back in via easterly winds. The tropics seasonal.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details in the video at the top

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details in the video at the top.


12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days