MORNING WEATHER WRAP - MORE WILD WEATHER ABOUT TODAY BEFORE THINGS EASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

Today is another violent day of weather over the northeast of NSW and southeast QLD. You can pick out the trough already this morning where warnings are in place, we have spoken about the risks for this week and no change to that guidance from yesterday looking at the upper air data


Severe weather may develop over parts of southern VIC tonight and eastern TAS with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding from Melbourne to Sale, with a wrap around cloud band near low pressure. Gales and heavy rainfall possible over TAS.


By Sunday should be mostly dry across the nation apart from the southeast and the northern tropics, high pressure over WA bringing settled conditions.


The next major weather event is set to move through the western parts of the nation during Monday which offers the next severe weather event nationally. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall likely with that low pressure system as it passes through.


In the east, the showery weather will return with onshore winds and the humid air will drift inland with the chance of thunderstorms coming back to forecasts over eastern QLD and NSW from Monday. Not much of a break now between the rainfall opportunities as we continue to move into November and then Summer. This is where we get wetter in the east climatologically, and with the drivers in place, the tap is being turned on full blast for some locations.


Elsewhere next week, the trough from WA will weaken but still bring rain areas from Wednesday or Thursday over SA. That trough slowing down and opening up a little bringing unsettled weather over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation this time next week and could set up camp for a while.


The north, hot and humid with scattered showers and storms, no defined weather system in the region, other than humid soupy nasty feral air and the support for showers and storms.


Lets take a look

FORECAST CHARTS (Severe Weather Charts covered off in a separate post in the severe weather room)


Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall slowly contracting through the eastern inland today with the passage of an upper low. The low pressure system at the surface is expected to deepen over the southeast states and move to be near TAS tonight, generating rain and strong winds. The weather over the southeast will begin to ease from the west during Sunday. There is likely to be a band of rain and thunderstorms approach SWLD of WA with a deep trough and low pressure system. The rain could be heavy at times during Monday night through Tuesday with many areas recording a month to 2 months rainfall with this feature. That system will race across the Bight and then become slow moving over SA from mid week with patchy rain and storms. The east turns soupy with onshore winds and showers likely to increase with a trough developing offshore enhancing rainfall chances for eastern QLD and coastal NSW. The tropics, the old song and dance.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Looking more like spring time on the charts. I have covered off the severe weather threats in another post this morning. Focussing now from the weekend and conditions ease over the southeast. The weather warms through SA and the weather clears and dries out over the eastern inland. Now the next major system to watch is the system over the SWLD of WA which comes through early next week. There is a severe weather threat with that system as it moves through early next week with gales and heavy rainfall. Crop damage may occur with the high impact weather. The system is expected to be forced south by a blocking pattern in the Tasman Sea, which sends winds into the east of the nation. Showers are expected to develop along the coast and inland thunderstorms are possible under the current guide from Monday onwards, some heavy falls possible. That block will help to slow down the trough from WA mid next week over SA which could see patchy rain and storms for a few days over the southeast states this time next week. There is evidence of another severe storm outbreak for QLD and NSW in the medium term, so lets flag that idea as the next danger period for the east, but watch trends over the weekend. The north looks soupy and unsettled, some southern extension of the storms is possible by this time next week over the NT and WA.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The moisture wrapping around the low pressure system today can be seen on the satellite, you can marry that movement on the future simulation below as to where the heavy rainfall will wrap into, so central VIC through southern NSW could see reasonable falls in the coming 24hrs. The dry line sweeps the severe weather offshore the east coast tonight. The west is warm and dry but note the deep moisture surge that comes in from the Indian Ocean early next week, the negative dipole still playing a part in the rainfall as we go through the coming 4-6 weeks as the phase peaks, so hold onto your hats with that influence. The moisture continues to stream in at regular intervals via the upper level winds feeding troughs over the northern and eastern inland of the nation seeing showers and storms increasing in coverage. Note the deep moisture with the blocking pattern out over the Tasman, could be drawn into the eastern inland via upper level winds. This chart is looking more like spring time now.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Heavy rainfall over the southeast tonight and through Saturday morning. A month's worth of rain could fall in some parts of VIC and TAS. Showers and storms clear the eastern coast of QLD and NSW this evening. The tropics are active today through next week with the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The west, that is anomalous rainfall for this time of year with a deep trough and deep low moving on by. If you are in SA, watch the trends, the rainfall is highly variable from run to run, as is what it should be during Spring.

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

More details can be found in the video

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

More details can be found in the video

I will have your climate outlook for the next 6 weeks, more details about the harvest outlook and a medium term forecast update as well. Stay weather aware today!!!!!


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