MORNING WEATHER WRAP - MIXED BAG OVER THE NATION FOR MONDAY.

The spring fronts are rolling through the south providing all sorts of windy showery weather with local hail and thunderstorms, with some of those possibly turning severe.


For the west, showers are expected to develop with another cold front later today into tomorrow with a colder shift.


The inland of the nation is warm with a westerly flow, drying out the eastern inland and across much of QLD and NT.


An upper high over the top of the tropics, sending the temperatures well above average but the dome will suppress shower and storm activity for pockets, keeping the build up conditions very much above average.


But we have interesting weather later this week and again next week next week for large parts of the nation, and as promised yesterday, the position of these systems keeps moving around from run to run, indicative of spring time forecasting.


Latest Update

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall is very much of a low confidence still as we track through the latter part of this week into the weekend and then this time next week. The rainfall in the short term, generally coastal and running over the south of the nation, the strongest system expected to come over SA through VIC and NSW by Thursday into Friday with widespread rainfall. Then our attention will turn to the inland where rain and storms likely to break out either through the southern NT or northern SA, and that system likely to then drift southeast towards eastern SA and NSW and QLD. But that system currently has a very low confidence rating at this time. The tropics, likely to get more active as we go this week as the upper high starts to weaken.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

There will be isolated thunderstorms over northern Australia, but the most robust area of thunderstorms with a damaging winds threat is for southeast SA and VIC. These storms are likely to form during the peak of the day time heating process. The storms will move through at pace thanks to the strong winds aloft, so rainfall not especially heavy. However some of the taller showers and storms could produce pea sized hail.

Damaging Winds Risk.

Strong gradient winds are likely to develop this morning as a cold pool of air with a strong cold front passes through the nations southeast. The winds reaching gale force about coastal areas and elevation but strong squalls are likely with showers and thunderstorms as well.

DATA


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is very interesting this week, we have that fast zonal flow to deal with for much of the south which is helping to keep temperatures below average for southern areas for this week, but it is a roller coaster ride in terms of weather, with fine spells and then bursts of widespread showers and windy weather. That activity settles by the end of the week. The last front brings the better rainfall to the southeast inland with again 20-30mm possible for areas that are already about 125% above average for year to date rainfall and catchments at 100% capacity. The rainfall over the southwest will begin to ease as ridging takes over later this week, and warmer drier weather is on the horizon. For SA and the NT and points east, over the weekend, we have a large scale trough and inland low with a sufficient supply of moisture that could bring in a large rainfall event for the southeast and east, with another round of severe weather possible on current guidance, but this is a bookmark forecast, and a heads up that this is likely the next chance of widespread rainfall.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

No change from yesterday, the main moisture to watch will be across the weekend into next week, how much gets entrenched into the low pressure trough and low pressure system as that passes through from Central Australia into the eastern states? If the winds go easterly will that boost moisture profiles for even heavier rainfall than what is forecast now? Over the north the humidity values are now coming off the charts and comfort levels are disgusting at the moment. The weather dries out over in the west as we go through the coming 10 days.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall confidence for the nation is low - but I will say we have two rainfall events, one of over the southeast later this week with a sharp front which could drop half a month's worth of rain. Then the larger scale event through Central Australia and Northern SA could drop 2-3 months worth of rainfall and then potential for a 1 month rainfall event over NSW and VIC once again on current guidance. For SA, beneficial rainfall is possible this weekend, but again the trajectory of the low pressure trough and where the low forms and captures is key, I would like to see the low develop further west through eastern WA for better rainfall spread for SA so lets see how it evolves over the coming 4-5 days. The north, your usual pop up showers and storms.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more details.