MORNING WEATHER WRAP - HOW IS THAT RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKING NEXT WEEK?

This is clearly the most anticipated weather coming up through the next week, with a dry and benign run of weather over the inland portions of the nation, which has been dominated by high pressure for much of this week. There is a weak front for the southeast today which may bring a few showers and thunderstorms about.


It is from Sunday we see conditions starting to shift as outlined through much of this week, but it is important to keep flagging these staging points for change.


Check out the video to follow the latest guidance.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is largely unchanged from overnight with this mornings run showing similar spread of rainfall throughout the nation, though as mentioned in previous days, the rainfall in the back half of this run is now starting to come within the 10 day window, hence why the falls are increasing. The rainfall in the SWLD will commence from Sunday and persist off and on through next week. That rainfall and moisture will mainly bypass SA and the lifting mechanism left over from that system will help to lift moisture streaming in via easterly winds that are developing around new high pressure Sunday. Another trough over the inland of QLD early next week will spark a few thunderstorms and showers and by Tuesday, once the western trough comes in with a low pressure system, it will see showers and storms become widespread through VIC, NSW and QLD, where the moisture bed will be located. Rainfall numbers look impressive BUT THE DISTRIBUTION WILL BE UNEVEN AND YOUR NUMBER WILL VARY IN ALL ZONES!

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A few showers and thunderstorms possible about the eastern districts over VIC and far southern NSW with a front passing through the southeast later today. Strong winds would be the main concern with any thunderstorm that develops through the afternoon and evening but are unlikely to be severe.

Hail Forecast Friday

Showers passing through the south of VIC will be in association with bitterly cold air with hail possible this evening and overnight, mainly about the coastal fringe. The weather dries out again overnight and conditions resolve by morning.


DATA

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern is certainly playing as expected this week with the high pressure dominating the majority of the nation leading to this fairly quiet week. We have a weak front passing through today over the southeast bringing a cold airmass and showery weather but the majority of the nation should remain dry until about Sunday. As mentioned in the video with the GFS, the Euro commences rainfall over the SWLD during Sunday, the eastern inland of QLD from Monday and these systems will likely make a B-Line to the eastern states with rainfall chances coming up next week. Becoming warmer with a northerly flow developing over the eastern states through the weekend into next week while the west turns cooler under persistent rainfall and cloud cover from Sunday. Over the tropics, the weather remains hot under an upper high, but humidity values are expected to increase throughout this outlook period and rainfall comes back at some stage next week but only isolated falls.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Anomalies Next 10 days

This again paints the picture well, showing the moisture overriding the dry air that is still sitting over a large part of the nation, hence the clear skies on the satellite. During the weekend, watch the cloud increase over WA and then the storm activity develop next week over inland QLD, hallmarks that atmosphere is shifting and changing. The moisture seems to be pooling on all modelling in the southeast and eastern inland and persists through the outlook period. Meanwhile, for you in SA, I would be paying close attention to the secondary system that passes through from the Indian Ocean which could provide a better chance of rainfall in the day 9-12 range. But for those not wanting rainfall over the east, there is quite a bit to come and to contend with throughout the coming 2-4 weeks.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for notes.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for notes.

I will have a medium term update and the longer term 6 week outlook coming up which takes a more detailed look at Climate once again.