MORNING WEATHER WRAP - HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THE NATION DOWN - THEN THE WILD WEATHER RETURNS WEST.

Headlines


  • Scattered showers easing over the southeast today, breezy and cool and the run of below average temperatures continues this weekend.

  • Fine and warm out west and through central parts of the nation with an easterly breeze developing.

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the NT

  • Major weather event still expected out west with damaging winds and heavy rainfall early in the week.

  • Storm outbreak for eastern QLD and NSW once again this week.

A few days of settled weather as we track through into the new week for central and eastern areas of the nation as we have high pressure setting up camp to the east of the nation. During Monday however, the dry and settled weather will come to an end for parts of eastern QLD and NSW, onshore winds feeding a trough which will kick off showers and thunderstorms. Some of those could be heavy.


Out west, a deep low pressure system and trough of low pressure expected to bring a squally change to the west with a band of rain and storms, some of that could be heavy and see many areas record a month's worth of rain in a sitting, possibly more.


That change will then drift or meander across the Bight bringing a warmer northerly flow ahead of it but scattered showers and thunderstorms for SA then onto VIC, NSW and QLD again next weekend.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be more patchy over the coming week, away from the SWLD of WA. That is where the major rainfall event is expected to be during the next few days. Some areas could see over a months worth of rainfall in a sitting which would be good for some and not for others. In the east, unsettled weather is expected to continue under a trough along the coast and onshore winds. The same can be said for the northern tropics with the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The weather later in the week, the front and low from the west will collapse to the south as the system hits the block in the Tasman Sea. The trough and moisture will still be dragged from northwest to southeast across the nation with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely to develop along that system. It has dropped the rainfall to a degree for SA...but watch this space. This is another shift in the seasonal conditions towards Summer 2021/22.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Scattered to numerous storms about the Top End, mainly over the eastern Top End but an organised batch may move west to the northwest Top End this evening or overnight. Isolated thunderstorms through the inland of WA with an upper trough and a few storms developing with weak troughs over the southeast of NSW and nearby ACT.

Frost Risk Sunday

Cold tonight over the southeast inland with dry air, clear skies and light winds under high high pressure. A light frost is possible in some areas especially at elevation.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

High impact damaging winds possible for the southwest coast of WA, especially if a low pressure system decides to move over the coast next Tuesday. Squally conditions north and east of this advancing system. The winds may extend inland as well.

DATA


GFS 18Z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Low pressure moves off to the east with a high pressure zone developing clearing skies and helping winds to east. Out west the next system drags in moisture from the northwest and into the southeast throughout the week. That system bringing a belting to SWLD of WA with moderate to heavy falls. Over in the eastern areas of QLD and NSW, thunderstorms are possible during the early part of the week with a trough, and then increasing later in the week with a new trough coming out of the west. Warmer over the southeast this week with a northwest to northerly flow. Trending cooler next weekend with a few showers and storms for the southeast with a weak trough moving into QLD. The medium term, becoming more humid and unsettled as we go with inland troughs but no defined weather event on the GFS but I suspect that will change. The tropics, hot and humid and unsettled.

GFS 18Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Note the drier weather coming in behind the trough and the low pressure system, the southerly winds easing tomorrow. An easterly pattern over the east quickly introduces moisture back through the eastern inland throughout the week. Meanwhile the weather over the west will turn unsettled with a deep moisture plume thanks to a strong cold front dragging in the moisture from the Indian Ocean. That will form a large cloud band which will move east. The tropics very humid and warm and that air will again travel over WA and into the SWLD through the medium term. The east will start to turn more humid for the end of the month as well, so expect the rainfall chances to increase regardless of what the models are saying right now.

GFS 18Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Uneven distribution of rainfall across many areas of the country over the next 2 weeks, but I do think things will turn wetter over coming days so watch this space. The west of the nation will likely see the most widespread rainfall activity in the short term. The tropics turn wet and the east coast sees showers and thunderstorms this week. The rainfall confidence drops away from later in the week through the end of the month.

CMC 12Z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

I am aligning myself with this outcome more than the above.

I will have more this afternoon - have a great Saturday.

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