MORNING WEATHER WRAP - HEAVY RAIN EASING OVER THE EAST, THE STORMS STAY THOUGH. DRY AND WARM WEST.

The pattern is still remaining fairly stagnant as we track high pressure through to Bight which is helping to anchor the low pressure over the eastern states and help to propel another upper trough into the series of troughs through the east, bringing more unsettled weather.


Overnight we have seen excessive rainfall, major flooding, severe flash flooding and severe thunderstorms through large parts of QLD dipping into northern NSW.


Thunderstorms are already underway through NSW and dipping into northern VIC where the activity is expected to become more scattered this afternoon. For QLD, the areas of rain with heavy falls should slowly start to ease.


Now many are saying this is La Nina already....the atmospheric response to La Nina is yet to be felt, this is the build up of moisture through the northern tropics, the stagnant pressure pattern and the positive SAM phase which I have been talking at nauseum about for the past month. This cycle will repeat over and over again this Summer so I will be across each event as it comes.


Get used to flooding in the east.


Over in the west, the weather is settled, warming up and breezy, could not be further from what is ongoing in the east.


Will the pattern flip?


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to ease over QLD today but we have ongoing major flooding for much of southeast inland areas today. Further rain and thunderstorms may produce flash flooding today. That will be the case for NSW and VIC with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening. Storms hit and miss meaning that the rainfall distribution is uneven. For the remainder of the nation it is fairly settled with not much rainfall through the weekend. The rainfall will continue off and on over the east and become more frequent over northern areas of the nation as the wet season steps it up a notch. Now next week we have another trough developing over WA that will move into SA, this could trigger a few showers and thunder early next week but then once again, will be running into deep moisture the further east it comes. So another round of humid and unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms increasing for VIC, NSW and QLD. If a low pressure system develops with the trough, then the rainfall and thunderstorm coverage will increase further and potentially, a severe storm outbreak will unfold. The northern tropics are looking wet with the monsoonal flow heading closer to Australia, that whips up the westerly moving waves of weather over the northern states.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue through NSW and QLD today with the rain and thunderstorms over the east and southeast easing this afternoon. There will be further thunderstorms developing along the surface trough once again from Cape York through to Warrnambool and points eastwards with the chance of severe weather, heavy rainfall the main concern. Thunderstorms over the northern tropics will continue to develop in the afternoon with gusty winds. Settled elsewhere.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

An upper trough will pass through southeast Australia and will help to pull the thundery weather from QLD south into NSW and VIC, with the chance of severe weather, heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms over inland QLD up to northern tropical areas of the state as well as the NT and dotted over northern WA. Gusty winds the main issue.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will develop once again for eastern VIC and southeast NSW with an upper trough lingering in the region. Wind convergence providing the southeast inland of NSW the chance of severe thunderstorms. The storms more isolated over the remainder of central and southern inland NSW during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms likely to develop over the northern tropics will heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main issue.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Troughs over northern and eastern Australia will fire up storms for the next few days with the coverage of rainfall over QLD thinning out as the upper feature moves off to the east. The showers and thunderstorms along a milder change over the southeast in the coming days will clear into NSW this weekend and a seasonal weekend of weather is on the way. Hot and windy in the west with temperatures into the mid to high 30s into next week as the slack pressure pattern persists. The monsoonal flow is starting to approach northern Australia with the easterly tropical waves picking up the rainfall and thunderstorm activity from the weekend into next week with falling heat levels.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The deep moisture supply is not going anywhere over the course of the next 10 days for QLD and as expected over the north of the nation, in fact, the moisture increases in depth through this period, which will support more heavy rainfall and thunderstorms developing through the north and northeast. For the remainder of the southeast and east, humid weather today and tomorrow will be flushed north and northeast by a southwest shift as high pressure comes in over the weekend. But the humidity will return next week ahead of a series of troughs. The west and central parts of the nation for now escaping the high humidity but it will creep south as the numbers over the north deepen.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video.

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video.

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information found in the video

I will have a look at the medium term forecast a little bit later this morning but be advised that the flooding situation is well and truly far from peaking over QLD and NSW this season and if you live along the river systems, you know what to do. Prepare for the 1/100 year flood and hope for the best.