MORNING WEATHER WRAP - HEATING UP OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF RAIN. SW WA COLD - DRIER NORTH.

The spring weather making it hard to even put together a headline for the nation this morning with all sorts of weather on the way for the nation in the coming few days.


From the colder than average temperatures over the southwest to the very warm air coming through SA today with some areas up to 17C above average, to the tropics drying out and the east going to be plunged back into winter...where do you start.


Lets take a look below

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall really contained to the southwest of the nation today as advertised and clearing storms and showers over the NT with a dry surge moving northeast, pushing out the humidity. A trough and front will bring patchy light rainfall through SA and the southern NT tomorrow and into VIC and NSW later with mainly light falls, I am not overly excited by the coverage of rainfall at this time, heaviest falls through the elevated parts of both states. The secondary cold front which I spoke about in the video offers more rainfall for the southeast states, some could be heavy over VIC and TAS, with some chance of more widespread falls over SA and NSW, but I have not drawn that in at this time. The bulk of the nation dry next week with well below average temperatures for the southern two thirds.

Thunderstorm Forecast NT

Very isolated showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon as the drier surge moves through this morning. Better coverage over the Tiwi Islands.

Excessive Heat SA

The heat is on today with very warm air already travelling south this morning lifting overnight minima well above average - setting the stage for a very hot day about the west coast spreading through to the EP later today, though the EP could be saved the worst of it thanks to the timing of the heat coming through at night, but dry winds will combine with the heat to produce nasty conditions for crops.

DATA - Check the forecast video to see more notes and analysis on these.


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Fairly settled over much of the inland but keep an eye on the secondary system moving through the southeast early next week, with model madness surrounding the strength and moisture involvement, resulting in variations in rainfall forecasts. Numbers are unchanged on the Euro for the southeast next week. The nation is largely settled away from the southeast for the coming week.

Euro 12z - PW Anomalies - Next 10 days

Note the drier air being drawn in ahead of that system on Sunday into Monday resulting in less rainfall overall for the southeast, the rest of the nation in sinking dry air, so rainfall chances very limited.

GFS 12z - PW Anomalies - Next 16 days

Note the difference in moisture coverage over the southeast later in the weekend, that does offer a better chance of rainfall for SA and again for VIC and NSW, but very cold air is expected early next week with the southerly surging north. Medium term, and I will have more on this later, moisture is set to return from the northwest, that idea is still on the table.

GFS 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern next 16 days

Note the rainfall coverage difference between the Euro and GFS early in the period and then we watch the medium term with interest as rainfall is desperately needed for parts of SA that will be baking today!

GFS 12z - Rainfall Next 10 days

Still image so you can follow the rainfall amounts along the bottom of the screen.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Next 10 days

You can see the difference in the rainfall coverage between the modes

I will have a medium term update for the nation coming up later this morning. Climate Drivers review with a look at the Indian Ocean once again as there are moisture plumes being injected into the jet stream through the outlook, CAN ONE OF THESE BRING RAINFALL BACK FOR SA and QLD!!?