MORNING WEATHER WRAP - FINE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NATION TODAY, RAIN DEVELOPING FROM FRIDAY.

A string of settled days nationally will give many a chance to take stock of what has been a damaging period of weather. There is still excessive flood waters through parts of NSW that will take a while to move downstream and in QLD and the southern NT, the flood waters are slowly receding.


We are looking at an increase in rain and thunderstorms from later this week, first in eastern WA, then passing into SA and the eastern states with a series of waves on a broad trough leading to pockets of heavy rainfall.


The modelling is not quite clear on who gets the heaviest of the rainfall but the weather is expected to turn wet and unsettled from this weekend.


The rain is expected to be heavy in the flood zones at this stage, mainly through southern NSW and VIC.


Otherwise the northern tropics are expected to turn more unsettled as we go through the week, QLD remaining mostly dry until later in the weekend as moisture begins to increase and the weather over the far west remaining dry.


Lets take a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall numbers continue to come up over much of the southern states with potentially heavy rainfall this weekend and again next week. Some signals of an east coast trough developing enhancing rainfall, but the specific location of that heavy rainfall shield could be anywhere from southeast QLD and along the South Coast of NSW so something to watch. Rainfall could be significant from SA through VIC and into southern NSW Friday through Sunday. A follow up rainfall event is expected to emerge from Central Australia and dive either southeast or maintain and easterly track next week. Significant rainfall may lead to flooding over QLD and NSW through VIC once again. For the remainder of the nation, the rainfall lighter over the west coast of WA but showers and storms may return to interior parts, extending through to northern parts of WA the NT and across to Cape York, especially from later in the weekend into next week. The moisture profile increasing nationally from the weekend into next week and this will set the stage for that wet end to November.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

A cool and relatively stable airmass is expected to keep the thunderstorm risk low nationally. Main areas of thunderstorm activity is expected over Cape York and inland WA.

DATA - Refer to the video for a look at GFS.


12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Two major rainfall events spreading across southern and eastern areas of the nation thanks to low pressure deepening and tapping into moisture surging out of the northwest. There will be moisture increasing over the tropics after near record heat. The record heat over the tropics is important as it will draw in the deeper humidity with significant thundery weather returning with the chance of heavy rainfall. This is to correct the anomalous weather. The weather in the east and southeast may remain unsettled with onshore winds and a trough developing, showers turning heavy next week. Out west, the weather may be turning warmer with persistent ridging to the south drawing in easterly winds. So after a cold Spring, the last week of Spring may be warm to hot and dry for the SWLD. Communities under flood warnings through the southeast and east, there may be more flood issues developing this weekend.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The anomalies are increasing. The weather turning more humid and unsettled across the course of this week. Where it rains this weekend, it will be moderate to heavy. You can see two waves of deep moisture being drawn in from the Indian Ocean as mentioned during the past week, the lasting impacts of the negative IOD still influencing the rainfall chances across the nation. That is the situation this weekend and again a lot of the focus is on the La Nina developing, but it is the Indian Ocean influencing this rainfall we are experiencing. The La Nina influence comes from Christmas onwards to March.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The PW values are significant once again, not as elevated as the previous event, but with the air being more unstable as we go throughout the remainder of the month, the rainfall is expected to become more widespread. With easterly winds developing for the back half of next week to the end of the month, moisture may increase over the eastern third of the nation and become stuck with a high chance of rainfall developing.

12z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Noting the rainfall numbers coming up across the nation, it will now come down to timing, placement and scale of the two major rainfall events spreading through the nation. The weather over the southeast does offer some concern in the flood zones. Also watching the potential for heavy rainfall to develop from between Mackay and Eden on the east coast with onshore winds feeding a trough. And the tropics are increasing in moisture and thundery activity this weekend and that will starts to move south. Plus more above average rainfall chances for southeast and southern WA and pockets of SA.

This region is of concern for significant rain leading to more flooding.

More details coming up today from your medium term forecast, harvest outlook and a more details on the severe weather potential this weekend.