MORNING WEATHER WRAP - COOL WITH SHOWERS OUT WEST, WARMING UP OVER SOUTHEAST. STORMS NORTH AND EAST

The weather continues to offer a bit of everything across the nation, with the high amplitude pattern continuing, the meridional phase continuing for much of this week before we see zonal weather return.


The main rainfall producing systems are now starting to emanate from the tropical north and be drawn south and east through the nation, helped along by troughs moving out of WA and linking up with the moisture to produce showers and storms.


In the short term, we have one trough that is likely to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for SA from later today into Wednesday before more widespread showers and thunderstorms develop for VIC and TAS with low pressure forming Thursday and Friday along this trough.


The unsettled weather will ease for SA, VIC and southern NSW during the weekend, but kick off through QLD and increase over the NT during the weekend before the moisture moves back into WA and the cycle repeats again with a new trough moving into SA with moisture, the chance of showers and thunderstorms return again in about a week's time.


Lets take a look at the shorter term.


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall forecasting remains low confidence as mentioned yesterday for this lead system passing through the southeast states, where a low forms will have a large impact on the rainfall distribution Thursday and Friday and there is still no clear guide yet amongst all the models. The higher confidence forecast does exist for those living in SWLD of WA where showers and unseasonably cold conditions continue today with a low pressure system passing over with moderate falls for some. The north of the nation extending into Central Australia seeing more showers and thunderstorms with scattered moderate falls. And more storms for QLD today should ease by tomorrow, the trough responsible is lifting out however the storms will return this weekend with a new trough coming out of NSW.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible once again for parts of eastern and northern QLD extending back into the NT with some strong to severe storms possible once again on the trough, but the potency of thunderstorms will not be as severe as recent days. Thunderstorms also possible through Central Australia down into western SA with a trough tapping into moisture streaming out of the north. A low pressure system coming into the SWLD will bring the chance of thunderstorms and small hail this morning with a gusty cold westerly.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The surface pressure pattern is fairly similar to GFS in the short term for the nation, a wet day for the SWLD of WA today with a cold front and low pressure system passing through. Where the models differ is in the placement of a developing low along that trough passing over southeast SA and VIC into TAS later this week as we spoke about last night. That will have major implications on rainfall totals for the southeast, the low further south, less rainfall, low further north, more rainfall. Storms ongoing in the short term over QLD on Tuesday should clear off for the most part on Wednesday before the weather dries for a period. Storms return over QLD from the weekend with the trough and some of those could pack a punch again so looking at severe weather issues with those. Over the north, the showers and storms to continue for much of this period and creep further south towards the SA and west into much of WA where showers and storms turn more numerous. For southeast and eastern Australia, this is where the next rainfall event will come from to kick off November. The west, cooler than normal weather for much of this week with showery weather then it turns drier by later this week, but those temperatures will struggle to get warm to hot for a while, especially over the SWLD.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video where you can see the GFS analysis on this parameter. It is going to get more humid as we get warmer through the outlook period for much of southern and eastern Australia while the west sits under drier cooler air with ridging.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more guidance

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more guidance

12z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 Days

Refer to video for more guidance

I will have more details on the medium and longer term later this morning. For those wanting to get harvest underway, it is really important to pay attention to the forecasts as we move into November. The latest harvest update also later this morning.