MORNING WEATHER WRAP - CONTRASTING WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH - HOT OVER THE NORTH - RAIN EVENT WEEKEND.

It is likely to be quite a changeable week for the south of the nation and we are seeing that continue Tuesday, with the milder air of Monday over southeast parts of the nation being replaced with winter time westerly winds. The weather over the north, unchanged although it is filthy humid.


For the west of the nation the last of the fronts for a while is through, conditions are expected to turn settled and slowly warm over the coming week.


The major feature on the board is that inland trough over the NT and SA which still shows potential of spreading heavy Spring rainfall over the heart of the nation, into the southeast and eastern inland. But as pointed out last night, the confidence in placing the system remains rather low - (make sure you check back at 9pm ahead of developing rain events for the model wrap and rainfall guide).


Lets look at the latest guide on the week ahead. It is quiet over the coming days but for those who are working on saturated ground, PAY ATTENTION to the forecasts in the coming days and prepare for perhaps 1/2 to 1 months worth of rain in the east later this weekend.

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall is largely confined to the southeast and southern coasts of Australia. Also the weather over the north lending itself to a few showers and thunderstorms at times through the Top End. Otherwise the nation is fairly dry and quiet until the weekend. That is when we see a sharpening trough spark some rainfall and thunderstorm activity through the NT and northern SA, this then orgainsing into a low a widespread rain is expected to move east from Sunday through early next week. These spring low pressure systems are tricky to forecast ahead of time with less reliable upper air patterns. But there are signals that the rainfall is likely to become widespread through QLD, NSW and VIC. Southern SA will be on the edge of it for now and the west looks to be the driest state over the next week.

DATA


12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The surface pressure pattern continues to be dominated by the westerly wind regime. You can see the last of the fronts passing through during Thursday with not much rainfall expected away from southeast Australia. The moisture does not connect with the cold front, however the moisture will be held back over inland parts of the nation to help stir up the larger rainfall event during the weekend. Inland areas of SA and through to the southern NT could see the heaviest rainfall in about one year if this verifies. Certainly since summer. The moisture then spreads east into NSW and southern QLD keeping the wet phase going for the year for NSW in particular. The system may bypass much of VIC and southeast SA at this time. Through the west, evidence that the weather could turn cold and showery again next week. Over the north hot and humid with showers and storms about though the coverage determined by an upper high in the region as well as the usual afternoon wind convergence. Becoming unsettled through much of QLD into the medium term.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

This again paints the similar picture to the last event, showing the pooling of moisture over the north of the nation, then recycling through the outback and passed into the southeast and eastern inland with low pressure helping to lift it into areas of rain and storms. This has been well forecast in the previous 2 systems and this would make it system number 3 following this same path. Climate models have predicted this pattern well in advance hence why my extended rainfall charts have been biased for the heaviest rainfall over the southeast inland and eastern inland of the nation (it's not personal SA) with the chances of heavier rainfall tapering off the further west you go. This may continue through the coming few weeks before moisture then becomes more widespread through areas of WA and northern SA helping to lift rainfall chances AFTER the time it is required for Ag areas of SA and VIC.

12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall is somewhat different to the GFS in terms of intensity and coverage, again reflecting the uncertainty in the global modelling for this feature. Until there is a well defined area of low pressure identified in real time, then the upper air network can then track the system and feed that data back into the modelling so until then, expect the rainfall forecasts to remain volatile, but it is highly likely that inland areas of Central and Eastern Australia could be in for a soaking, exactly where remains up in the air quite literally. For the remainder of the nation, the southeast carries high confidence for further light falls today and Thursday and random falls over northern portions of the nation with the usual storm lotto.

12z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days - A lot falls in the next 10 days.

Refer to the video for more details.

I will have more details on the medium term later this morning along with an update on HARVEST WEATHER as well. Looking into November.


Also this is why I came off social media providing weather....I am still operating and if you can see this, thank you for your support!!!



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