MORNING WEATHER WRAP - CONTRASTING SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES.

Cold starts for the southeast and eastern inland of the nation with a high pressure system sitting over Central parts of the nation. The weather is expected to remain settled for much of the inland this week, though moisture being pulled down from the northwest ahead of a front diving southwest of SA, is expected to bring some cloudy weather and patchy rainfall this weekend.


The east today starting out wet, and a few overnight thunderstorms over the Top End. A sign of the times of weather shifting before our eyes from the wintry phase deeper into the Spring phase.


Lets have a look at the weather for the week.

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from last night with the main features being today's rainfall over NSW clearing northeast in the coming 24hrs. Moderate falls ongoing. Then the change sweeping through the SWLD could bring some moderate to heavy falls as it moves through. The front will dive to the southwest of SA and pull down moisture and a large cloud band is expected to form but rainfall will be limited to where the dynamics are better for rainfall, which will be over VIC and southern NSW. The tropics clear out from later this week with a dry surge moving in. The inland looks largely dry for the coming 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Darwin - Tuesday

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms once again likely in the peak of the diurnal cycle. These will be random scattered pulse storms forming on the northwest seabreeze front moving southeast and converging with the dry southeasterly winds. Storms will be non severe but gusty in spots and rain themselves out within the hour.

Hail Risk Forecast - Tuesday.

Still have some of the taller showers producing small hail this morning along the coast, this will clear offshore later this afternoon.

DATA

Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days

Largely unchanged from this morning with the upper trough over the northeast of NSW bringing that showery start. That moves away with a high dominating the remainder of the nation. The tropics unsettled over the NT with slightly colder upper levels and deeper moisture the coming 2 days, however the airmass will dry out and the remainder of the week into the weekend is dry. A cold front passing over WA during Wednesday through Thursday becomes the focus of changeable weather this week as it rolls towards the Bight. It will act the drag moisture out of the northwest through southeast via the jetstream, which will lead to a large cloud band developing, though not much rainfall for SA at this time. The colder weather following the front and trough will arrive in the southeast this weekend behind the newly formed rain band over VIC and NSW before more frontal weather sweeps through next week. Most of the nation away from the coast, dry and becoming hot.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Values for the next 10 days

You can see that moisture streaming out of the northwest this week into the weekend and being picked up by the second cold front, producing a larger rain band. The reason there is not much rainfall for SA, is timing, the moisture is decoupled from the lifting mechanism and dry air at the surface meaning all of this is working against rainfall developing. Refer to video for more analysis.

Euro 12z - Rainfall for the next 10 days

Refer to video for more details.

I will have your medium term forecast and a Climate Update at lunch for the coming 6 weeks. You state based rainfall and detailed forecast coming up this evening.

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