MORNING WEATHER WRAP - BECOMING UNSETTLED THROUGH SA AND VIC - MORE WET WEATHER DEVELOPS WEEKEND.

The weather is unsettled through southern WA as well where a batch of showers and thunderstorms forming on the second part of this trough working through SA and VIC today, becomes the main focus of severe weather potential this weekend for the southeast.


Over QLD today, additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, onshore winds up over the tropical coast will also produce showers, some heavy. The air is a little warmer today so the storm activity may not be as potent as yesterday.


The tropics also starting to feel the impacts of deeper moisture with a shift into northeast to easterly winds bringing in the rich equatorial air.


The weather of most concern is the southeast states where flooding is ongoing and additional heavy rainfall is set to interrupt many harvest operations, but also lead to an expansion of the flood risks again. Bottom line the region will not be drying out from saturated levels.


The west in contrast, dry and mostly fine this week and heading to a much warmer spell into next week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be extensive and heavy through southern WA, through southern SA under a narrow band near and south of a deepening low pressure system that will be moving southeast through the state Friday. Ahead that part of the trough, the lead system working through VIC and southern NSW may bring a few showers and thunder today, but limited moisture is expected to lead to light falls. A few showers and storms over QLD will drop isolated moderate to heavy falls but they won't be as numerous as yesterday. Again, the main event is this weekend where another 1-2 months worth of rain may fall upon large parts of VIC and southern NSW including the ACT. Thunderstorms may also produce heavy falls over central and northern NSW Sunday. Then we dry out in the east and the central and northern areas of the country turn more humid. Models differ on how to handle a second system but more rainfall is expected for QLD and NSW mid next week while the tropics turn quite active. Finally there is moisture offshore WA that may feed into a trough over the west which may increase rainfall for inland WA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected in random scattered pockets across the nation today, the most scattered over WA into SA later in the day and across southern VIC. The storm coverage not as extensive today through QLD today.

Additional Flood Risk This Weekend

Heavy rainfall with local thunderstorms may lead to flash flooding through parts of northeast VIC and southern NSW including the ACT. Falls could exceed 100-150mm in some parts of these regions this weekend.

DATA - Refer to video for more analysis


Euro 12z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video above for more details to compare against the other modelling.

Euro 12z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Note the moisture deepening over the northern tropics throughout this period. In the short term, you can see the thin sliver of moisture being drawn in from the northwest into the southeast, and this is where the rain band will form, but for SA and VIC you can see the rain band is narrow and likely to frustrate many who want rain/who don't want rain. The heavier moisture and more widespread rainfall potential exists in NSW at this stage. This model now picking up on the secondary feature next week over central Australia into NSW and QLD as well. The west drier and more stable with moisture sitting further north and east through the period, however the modelling now dropping the idea of a strong high over the Bight next week which will lead to moisture sticking around through the outlook for NT, QLD and northern and eastern NSW as easterly winds develop.

Euro 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

The Euro showing two rainfall events but a noticeable shift in the rain band from the first feature moving a little more north in this update and picking up the secondary feature deepening over inland NSW as per the ACCESS last night (which I spoke of in the rainfall and model wrap)

CMC 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

I am still leaning with this solution as it has been most consistent, however watching the rain band placement in the coming updates as the models now track the trough in real time over the southeast. Otherwise the moisture over the nation should begin to build leading to more unsettled weather next week for many locations.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

More in line with CMC at this time but does increase moisture nationwide next week...finally. Starting to get wetter now. Watch the tropical mischief in the short term offshore WA.

ACCESS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

Note the rainfall over inland areas of NSW and QLD with the secondary system being in line with where the Euro is going this morning. So inland areas of NSW under flood warning and previous watches, pay attention to the forecasts in coming days!

KMA 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Note the thin rain band over the south of the nation, but the secondary system becoming more widespread over the eastern states next week now. The moisture pooling over the nation is setting the scene for a very wet December.

GFS 12z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

And the tropical cyclone click bait on social media should be ignored. This system will not be there in the next run, if it is, it will be somewhere else. It is just expressing what I have been pointing out all week, the tropics are becoming more active over the course of the end of the month and tropical waves are approaching from the east.

More weather information coming up this morning looking at the medium term forecast.


Just a reminder that I will be at a funeral this afternoon so I will have a modified evening update and will update all things rainfall from 9pm EDT tonight. Thank you for your understanding.