MORNING WEATHER WRAP - ANOTHER DAY, SAME WEATHER.

A slack pressure pattern is set to control the weather, meaning what you see outside today is likely to be with us tomorrow as well, very much normal for this time of year.


What is unusual is the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas and the intensity of rainfall. The east coast has been wetter than the tropics so far this month with a very high volume of moisture over the nation's east with low pressure constantly in the area.


That has lead to further widespread rainfall and thunderstorms over the past 24 hours and the heavy rainfall continues for interior parts of QLD and NSW this morning as that mass of thundery rain moves east.


Further thunderstorms will develop over the areas that copped it overnight and this morning and points west near the trough today which means more flooding is a chance.


For the remainder of the nation, the south is relatively settled but warm to hot with humidity on the increase and the west is mild and sunny but the temperatures will soar this weekend as the high to the south moves east and brings a milder change to the southeast.


Overall the tropics are relatively seasonal with no complications at this stage, other than the routine showers and thunderstorms.


Lets take a look at the week ahead.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is continuing over the flood zones this morning with a trough near stationary in the east, bringing further days of showers and thunderstorms in the days ahead. Some of the storms could be heavy in the next few days before the rainfall thins out a bit. The southeast will see spotty showers and thunderstorms with another trough passing through the region by Thursday. The remainder of southern and western portions of the nation will remain dry and clear under ridging and the north of the nation will see the routine showers and storms, but these may start to increase over the weekend. That moisture from the tropics then passing southwest and south into the western interior next week bringing the next chances of rainfall. In the east, still watching the chance of another trough deepening bringing rainfall back to the flood zones but also over the eastern coastal areas of both NSW and QLD.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning from overnight and heavy rainfall continues to be the main threat for QLD and northern NSW today with the high risk of further flash flooding. Some areas have recorded falls of 100-200mm with thunderstorms. This will continue today. The weather is expected to remain unsettled further west of this rain band with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along the trough over western NSW through western NSW into northeast VIC. These storms could be strong to severe as well, mainly through NSW and southern QLD.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms likely to move from QLD into NSW and VIC with the main trough line heading southwest into another upper trough moving out of SA. Storms could turn severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern. The tropics still expected to see showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with that mainly routine tropical activity.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Further showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over eastern VIC and much of southeast and southern NSW during Thursday as a slow moving trough heads east. Storms could be severe with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main risks. A milder shift is expected to follow the trough over VIC with stable air. Tropical weather continues as per normal.

DATA

12Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Dynamic trough is driving the main weather over the east today with showers and thunderstorms, areas of rain for the coast of QLD and heavy falls leading to flash and further riverine flooding. The rainfall will ease later tonight over the southeast and east of QLD. Showers and thunderstorms will fire behind the band of rainfall over southern QLD and northern NSW and extend down inland NSW close to the VIC border and along the GDR in the southeast. The showers and thunderstorms unlikely to be severe over southern NSW if storms form. Then tomorrow the pattern eases for QLD, the showers and storms increase for NSW and VIC and repeats on Thursday with another trough deepening. The west will remain relatively dry and stable with the temperatures fluctuating as the high pressure south of the nation resets, allowing winds to shift southeast to easterly. The northern tropics will continue as normal though the intensity of thunderstorms may increase. Next week, another batch of rain and thunderstorms may increase over QLD and NSW with heavy falls developing along a new trough, that rainfall increasing potentially for VIC and SA but will review this tonight when the later data sets arrive.

12Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Deep moisture is still hanging up it's boots over the east of the nation with the tropical incursion set to persist for a number of days with low pressure in the region. This will lead to more heavy rainfall today and tonight. The tropics relatively seasonal for the north though interior parts and back to the southwest of the nation, things are dry and stable with a high close by and easterly winds. Those same easterly winds running across the country bringing the moisture and rainfall chances to the east, but as these winds run over land they are drying out by SA and turning hotter by the time you hit WA. The pattern starts to break down next week with moisture as mentioned yesterday in the medium term update, surging south from the tropics into the south and east as well as down the west coast into another trough over the western interior.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video

12Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video

I will have another medium term and longer term outlook through today and then your state based forecasts as per usual this evening as we see what this trough does over the east and if we still have a pattern flip over the west with humidity returning.

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