MORNING WEATHER WRAP - ANOMALOUS WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION

Cold weather for the southeast today with showers increasing, hail and thunder as well with temperatures up to 12C below average in some locations. We have dry air passing north throughout the nation which will make it through the entire tropical region bringing about a hot dry few days, again anomalous for November.


The only area that is seeing seasonal weather is the southwest and west of the nation with a warm northeast flow.


Looking ahead and I will have more on this tonight in the state based updates, the warmer weather will increase nationwide and the moisture will also increase across the nation too, this leading to that wet end to November. Note the drier weather we have across the nation with a drier airmass will not last long, so make the most of it.


OBSERVATIONS

Satellite Imagery

A very dry airmass has passed through the majority of the nation and working through the northern parts of the NT. The weather is expected to remain dry and mostly sunny for most areas away from the southeast until mid week when the moisture starts to fold back in. The cold pool of air over the southeast will continue to bring the most active weather nationally to the southeast. That cold front will pass through the southeast this afternoon. Otherwise it is a stable dry airmass.

Rainfall 24hrs

The follow up rainfall continued overnight for the eastern inland of NSW and the ACT and across the southeast of VIC. The weather elsewhere relatively dry away from the tropics where the highest PW values were yesterday.

Flood Warnings

The flooding is of concern this week and while it is a dry period for much of the inland until the weekend coming, please be aware of the flood risks downstream on your river system. This was predicted over a week ago and if you are reading this from the regions you should be prepared now. The main issue is along the Lachlan River.

For Victoria, major flooding has been observed in Bairnsdale along the Mitchell River.

Significant amount of inland flooding will continue to work south and west during the coming weeks, additional rainfall will exacerbate the flooding in the Summer months.

FORECAST


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall lean for the coming 4 days or so, with the southeast copping the most of it. But then we see rainfall chances coming up as the easterly winds returns for QLD and NSW. Over in the west a deep trough will form over the inland with moisture eventually folding into the system as it tracks eastwards, that offers the most widespread rainfall and follow up moderate falls for SA, VIC and NSW and perhaps inland QLD. The tropics will return to soupy unsettled with the usual showers and thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Forecast Sunday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the southeast along a front passing through and behind the front in the cold airmass. Light rainfall generally, but squally winds and small hail is expected in some of these storms.

Farmers and Graziers - Friday through Monday. A gusty cold southwest flow in the wake of the low with heavy showers and gale force winds with temperatures up to 12C below average will continue from Friday through until Sunday night or Monday. This will carry a very high risk of stock loss for those in southern VIC and extend into southern NSW and the ACT. The winds milder in the westerly flow on the east coast in lee of the divide.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday

This risk may be expanded into the Central Tablelands as mentioned last night.

Riverine Flood Risk

This was the riverine flood risk from last week and has verified quite well, though some areas are yet to see flood waters pass through, you do not need rainfall of tremendous amounts in your region to be impacted by flooding and more flooding is expected in the coming 2-3 months.

DATA

12z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

An August or September like pressure pattern is in place today, that has verified well in all the forecasts from last week. The showery cold air will move on by Tuesday with the below average temperatures and dry sunny skies over much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation is expected to continue for the coming 3-4 days. By the end of this week that lovely warm sunny weather will move from WA into the east, while WA turns cooler with a southerly change and new ridge. The tropics anomalously dry with a trough passing north of the NT will remain in place until mid week, then the northeast winds return and humidity and unsettled weather develops from later this week. The east coast will see showers developing with onshore winds, with a few thunderstorms possible over the eastern inland of the nation from mid to late week. The next major rainfall event potential exists with a trough emerging out of WA later this week and that tapping into moisture from the northwest bringing scattered showers and storms, but no severe weather events are evident at this time.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Anomalous dry air following anomalous humidity is indicative of the volatile season we are currently enduring which is expected to continue as we move through the remainder of Spring into Summer. The very dry air will be overrun by the moisture passing through the nation from later this week with a more favourbale weather pattern supporting a return to humid and unsettled weather developing.

12z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

A nice clean out of the moisture has concluded and this is resulting in a colder and drier airmass with below average temperatures for large parts of the nation but the moisture will return, later this week into the weekend as a high pressure system moves further south and allows for easterly winds to return to much of the nation and more favourable upper level winds to transport moisture out of the northwest with tropical mischief towards Indonesia.

12z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

After a dry 4-5 days the rainfall returns to the east coast, over the tropics and then the more interesting area of moisture source and rainfall potential comes in via the Indian Ocean. That may bring a band of rain through southern and western areas of the nation later this week and another trough will then scoop up the moisture and bring rainfall to central southeast and eastern areas of the nation during next weekend. Note the tropics becoming wetter with the monsoonal activity sinking further south from the equator.

Your December, Summer and Autumn Outlook coming up this afternoon and your state based forecasts tonight.